Capelin survey estimates and advice below expectations

Capelin on a conveyor belt.
Photo: MFRI

Updated catch advice from the Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (GINR) for the upcoming capelin fishing season is just over 105 thousand tonnes. The advice is based on the results of acoustic surveys on the capelin stock conducted last September, which proved to be significantly below expectations. Due to storms and sea ice in the northernmost part of the survey area, full coverage of the stock's distribution area was not achieved, meaning the stock size is likely underestimated.

The measurements

The research vessels Tarajoq and Árni Friðriksson carried out capelin surveys between August 23 and September 26 off the east coast of Greenland and north of Iceland. Although the plan was successfully executed across most of the research area with coverage deemed satisfactory, the northernmost coverage was incomplete due to frequent storms. As a result, a coarser grid had to be surveyed in the northern area to obtain measurements between severe storms (30-40 ms^-1 and 10 m waves), and sea ice ultimately prevented further survey work (Figure 1). In the southern part of the area, the capelin found was almost exclusively juvenile, while adult capelin was located further north-extending all the way to 71°N, where Árni Friðriksson had to turn back due to storms and sea ice.

Figure 1. The survey tracks of RV Tarajoq and RV Árni Friðriksson in the autumn 2026 (grey lines), density of capelin (bars perpendicular to the cruise tracks, in pink) and distribution and thickness of sea ice on 23 September (colour scale).

Survey results and advice

The size of the fishable stock, which will form the basis of catches for the upcoming season, was measured at just under 560 thousand tonnes. Considering the agreed harvest control rule and estimated predation, this measurement yields catch advice of 105,773 tonnes. It should be noted that the harvest control rule states advice based on autumn stock measurements should be set at 2/3 of the calculated total allowable catch, which was 158,660 tonnes and indicates how this measurement affects the catch.

The measurement of the fishable stock size is well below expectations based on juvenile capelin measurement from autumn 2025. The initial advice based on that measurement was 358,044 tonnes, which the new advice now replaces. The discrepancy between these two survey results is believed to stem from, at least in part, an underestimation of the fishable stock size due to the incomplete survey coverage in autumn 2026.

Measurements of juvenile (immature) capelin abundance came in at 65.9 billion individuals, meaning initial advice for the 2027/28 fishing year will likely be 83,283 tonnes according to the harvest control rule in place.

Final advice for the current season, which will replace the advice of 105 thousand tonnes, will be issued following winter acoustic surveys in the new year. Final decisions regarding the arrangements for those surveys have not yet been made, but the results of this latest survey will influence them.

See advice sheets for capelin 12 October 2026 here.