Capelin Mallotus villosus

Advice 2026/2027(2)

105 773

tonnes

Advice 2026/2027(1)

358 044

tonnes

Advice change

-70 %

Note: This intermediate advice will be updated in January-February 2027

Publication of Advice: 12. October 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute and by Greenland Institute of Natural Resources.

Advice

MFRI and GINR advise that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be no more than 105 773 tonnes.

Stock development

The spawning-stock size in 2027 is above B_lim; no reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immatures from autumn surveys, and SSB at spawning time. Shaded areas and error bars show 90 % confidence intervals.

Basis of the assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice	Coastal states management plan
Management plan	See HCR (Anon 2023, ICES 2023).
Assessment type	Survey index based estimates.
Input data for the initial advice	The abundance estimate of immature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn.
Input data for the intermediate advice	The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn.
Input data for the final advice	The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn and winter.

Approach	Reference point	Value	Basis
Management plan	Bmgt	114 000	Defined according to the agreed management plan (Anon 2023), in tonnes
	Utrigger	50	Defined according to the agreed management plan(ICES 2015), juvenile index, in billions
	Cap	127	Defined according to the agreed management plan (ICES 2015), juvenile index, in billions
Precautionary approach	Blim	114 000	Mean size of three lowest SSBs that produced average recruitment (in 1981,1982, and 1990), in tonnes (ICES 2023)

Prospects

The Coastal States (Iceland, Greenland, and Norway), have agreed (Anon, 2015; Anon, 2023) to use the following harvest control rule as the basis for management, following the rule developed and revised by ICES (ICES, 2015; ICES, 2023).

The objective of the Harvest Control Rule is to set a final TAC which ensures, with 95% probability, that a minimum of 114 000 t (B_lim) remains for spawning. This is achieved by a series of acoustic surveys from September - February and the TAC is determined in three stages; an initial TAC, an intermediate TAC and a final TAC.

The initial TAC for the next fishing season is set based on estimates of the immature part of the stock following an acoustic survey in autumn (September - October).

Two fixed points are defined:
1. U_trigger = 50 billion immature capelin.
2. TAC_Max = 400 000 tonnes for U > 127 billion immature capelin.
The method for setting the initial/preliminary TAC is:
- TAC = 0 if U_imm < 50 billion.
- TAC = 5.211702 x (U_imm - U_trigger) thous. tonnes for U_imm in the range 50–127 billion.
- TAC = 400 000 tonnes if U_imm > 127 billion.
The intermediate TAC for the current fishing season is set following the acoustic survey in autumn. Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass (SSB) with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The intermediate TAC is set at 2/3 of the catch giving p(SSB < B_lim = 114 000 tonnes) < 0.05.
The final TAC is set following an acoustic survey in winter (January-February). Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. Final TAC is set based on all acoustic surveys on the mature part of the stock from autumn to winter. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The final TAC is set at the catch giving p(SSB < B_lim = 114 000 tonnes) < 0.05. Following the ICES benchmark (2023), the autumn survey is given a maximum weight of 1/3.

Capelin. Inputs to the harvest control rule.

Variable	Value	Notes
Catch (2026/2027) prior to survey	0	in tonnes
Harvestable biomass (2027)	565 057	Stock size according to the autumn survey, in tonnes
Cod stock size (2027)	772 349	Input to the predation model, in tonnes
Haddock stock size (2027)	230 346	Input to the predation model, in tonnes
Saithe stock size (2027)	256 570	Input to the predation model, in tonnes

Capelin. Projection based on adopted harvest control rule.

Basis	Catch (2026/2027)	SSB (2027) 1)	Advice change2)
Management plan	105 773	278 036	-70
1) SSB (t) on March 15th 2027
2) Advice value for 2026/2027(2) relative to initial advice value for 2026/2027 (1) (358044 t)

The assessment utilized acoustic measurements of mature stock biomass from September 2026, and accounted for the abundance of multiple predators in the predation model. The assessment indicates that the goal of the harvest control rule is met with the proposed catch of leaving at least 114 000 t for spawning with a 95% probability is reached with catch of 158 660 tonnes. The intermediate TAC is 2/3 of that catch, or 105 773 tonnes.

Quality of the Assessment

The spatial coverage of the 2026 autumn survey was limited by adverse weather and drifting sea ice. While the coverage in most of the survey area was in accordance with plans and considered adequate, the northernmost area could not be fully surveyed. Mature capelin was in this area and the zero line of the distribution was not reached towards north. Hence, underestimation of the mature stock is likely but to an unknown degree. The survey had a low coefficient of variation (CV=0.19) for the mature stock estimate. Although this reflects sampling variance within the whole surveyed area only and does not account for potential bias from incomplete coverage.

Other information

ICES is only requested to provide initial catch advice using a rule based on a low probability that the advised catch for the initial TAC will be higher than the final TAC (ICES, 2015). MFRI will provide updated catch advice following an acoustic survey in October and surveys in January–February 2027, which will form the basis for the final TAC for 2026/2027.

The period for the fishing season was changed in 2021 by the Coastal States from the period 20 June - 15 April to the period 15 October - 15 April.

Advice, TAC and Catch

Capelin. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches.

Fishing year	Initial TAC	Rec. final TAC	Final TAC	Total catch
1986/1987	1 100 000	1 333 400	1 290 000	1 334 000
1987/1988	500 000	1 115 800	1 115 000	1 117 000
1988/1989	900 000	1 036 500	1 065 000	1 036 000
1989/1990	900 000	807 800	900 000	808 000
1990/1991	600 000	313 600	250 000	313 000
1991/1992	0	677 100	740 000	677 000
1992/1993	500 000	787 700	900 000	788 000
1993/1994	900 000	1 178 700	1 250 000	1 179 000
1994/1995	950 000	863 900	850 000	864 000
1995/1996	800 000	929 300	1 390 000	926 000
1996/1997	1 100 000	1 570 900	1 600 000	1 569 000
1997/1998	850 000	1 244 900	1 265 000	1 245 000
1998/1999	950 000	1 099 400	1 200 000	1 100 000
1999/2000	866 000	1 000 000	1 000 000	931 000
2000/2001	650 000	1 110 000	1 090 000	1 070 000
2001/2002	700 000	1 300 000	1 300 000	1 249 000
2002/2003	690 000	1 000 000	1 000 000	989 000
2003/2004	555 000	875 000	900 000	743 000
2004/2005	335 000	985 000	985 000	784 000
2005/2006	0	238 000	235 000	247 000
2006/2007	0	385 000	385 000	377 000
2007/2008	207 000	207 000	207 000	203 000
2008/2009	0	0	0	15 000
2009/2010	0	150 000	150 000	151 000
2010/2011	0	390 000	390 000	391 000
2011/2012	366 000	765 000	765 000	748 000
2012/2013	0	570 000	570 000	551 000
2013/2014	0	160 000	160 000	142 000
2014/2015	225 000	580 000	580 000	517 000
2015/2016	53 600	173 000	173 000	173 500
2016/2017	0	299 000	299 000	297 732
2017/2018	0	285 000	285 000	287 000
2018/2019	0	0	0	0
2019/2020	0	0	0	0
2020/2021	169 520	127 300	127 300	128 647
2021/2022	400 000	869 600	869 600	689 200
2022/2023	400 000	459 800	459 800	330 051
2023/2024	0	0	0	0
2024/2025	0	8 589	8 589	9 439
2025/2026	46 384	197 474	197 474	190 086
2026/2027	358 044

References and further reading

Anon. 2015. Agreed Record of Conclusions of Coastal State consultations on the management of the capelin stock in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area. 2015. Reykjavík, Iceland. 7–8 May 2015. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/37b66bdf33d84e99924bb27553641719/samledokument-lodde-mai-2015---agreed-records---bilateral-avtale.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.

Anon. 2023. Framework arrangement between Greenland and Iceland on the conservation and management of capelin. Reykjávik, Iceland 3 July 2023. 4 pp. https://www.althingi.is/altext/pdf/154/fylgiskjol/s1655-f_I.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.

ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop of Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Copenhangen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 335 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295

ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388

MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.