NORTHERN SHRIMP ÍSAFJARÐARDJÚP Pandalus borealis

Advice 2026/2027

tonnes

Advice 2025/2026

tonnes

Advice change

0 %

Publication of Advice: 28^th September 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.

Advice

MFRI advises in accordance with the MSY approach that catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be 0 tonnes.

Stock development

Fishable biomass index is below I_lim and I_trigger and the fishing pressure is below HR_MSY proxy.

Northern shrimp Ísafjarðardjúp. Catches, fishing pressure with HR_MSY proxy, and fishable biomass index with I_trigger and I_lim.

Basis of the Assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice	MSY approach
Management plan	There is no management plan for this stock
Assessment type	Trends in biomass indicators
Input data	Commercial catch and survey biomass indices (Icelandic inshore shrimp survey)

Approach	Reference point	Value	Basis
MSY approach	HRMSY proxy	0.5	Historical relationship between catch and survey indices of inshore shrimp stocks.
Precautionary approach	Ilim	604	Proxy for Blim. Biomass index value of 20% of the mean of the three highest indices.
	Itrigger	604	Ilim

The ICES framework for short-lived stocks for which analytical assessment is not possible but trends in biomass indicators are assumed to reflect changes in stock dynamics was applied (Category 3 stock, ICES, 2025). The advice rule applied to this stock was evaluated to be precautionary and in-line with the MSY approach (Woods et al. 2023).

The survey biomass index of northern shrimp in Ísafjarðardjúp, along with catch, is used to calculate HR_proxy (catch/survey biomass). The advice is based on multiplying the most recent index value with the HR_MSY proxy value.

Northern shrimp Ísafjarðardjúp. Advice calculation.

Ay: Catch advice for 2025/2026	0
Biomass index
Iy: Latest index value (I2026)	267
Harvest rate proxy
HRMSY proxy: Historical relationship between catch and survey indices of inshore shrimp stocks	0.5
Biomass safeguard
Index trigger value (Itrigger)	604
b: Index relative to trigger value, if I2026/Itrigger > 1 then 1 otherwise 0	0
Precautionary multiplier to maintain biomass above Blim with 95% probability
Catch advice for 2026/20271)	0
% advice change2)
1) Ay+1 = Iy× HRMSY proxy × b
2) The figures in the table are rounded. Calculations were done with unrounded inputs, and compared values may not match exactly when calculated using the rounded figures in the table.

Prospects

The shrimp juvenile index was low in 2016-2026.

Other information

The abundance of haddock in Ísafjarðardjúp has remained high since 2004 and in 2026 the abundance index of haddock was one of the highest in the study period. Large part of the haddock was at age 1. Hence, predation pressure is relatively high.

The advice rule used for this stock was developed under the assumption of stable stock sizes of the predator species that prey on shrimp. Should these stock sizes change considerably the advice rule may no longer be valid.

Advice, Tac and catch

Northern shrimp Ísafjarðardjúp. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).

Fishing year	Recommended TAC	National TAC	Total catch
1990/1991	3 000	3 000	3 114
1991/1992	2 500	2 500	2 555
1992/1993	2 500	2 500	2 501
1993/1994	2 500	2 500	2 511
1994/1995	2 100	2 100	1 955
1995/1996	2 700	2 700	2 756
1996/1997	2 300	2 300	2 265
1997/1998	1 450	1 450	1 426
1998/1999	1 000	1 000	1 025
1999/2000	1 800	1 800	1 715
2000/2001	1 200	1 200	1 287
2001/2002	1 500	1 500	1 497
2002/2003	1 000	1 000	989
2003/2004	0	0	0
2004/2005	0	0	0
2005/2006	0	0	0
2006/2007	0	0	0
2007/2008	0	0	0
2008/2009	0	0	0
2009/2010	0	0	0
2010/2011	0	0	0
2011/2012	1 000	1 000	1 040
2012/2013	500	500	527
2013/2014	1 100	1 100	1 128
2014/2015	750	750	801
2015/2016	700	700	767
2016/2017	484	484	491
2017/2018	322	322	343
2018/2019	456	456	459
2019/2020	565	565	570
2020/2021	586	586	582
2021/2022	0	0	12
2022/2023	523	523	529
2023/2024	0	0	0
2024/2025	0	0	0
2025/2026	0	0	4
2026/2027	0

References and further reading

ICES. 2025. ICES Guidelines - Advice rules for stocks in category 2 and 3. Version 3. ICES Guidelines and Policies - Advice Technical Guidelines. 31 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.28506179

Pamela J. Woods, Bjarki Þór Elvarsson og Ingibjörg G. Jónsdóttir. 2023. Management strategy evaluation of harvest rates of the Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis in Arnarfjörður and Ísafjarðardjúp, Iceland. HV2023-45.

MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Northern shrimp Ísafjarðardjúp. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 28 September 2026.