NORTHERN SHRIMP ARNARFJÖRÐUR Pandalus borealis
Publication of Advice: 7 October 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI advises that, when the MSY approach is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be 0 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishable biomass index is below Ilim and Itrigger and the fishing pressure is below target HRproxy.
Northern shrimp Arnarfjörður. Catches, fishing pressure with target HRproxy and fishable biomass index with Itrigger and Ilim.
Basis of the Assessment and reference points*
Basis of the advice | MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Trends in biomass indicators |
Input data | Commercial catch and survey biomass indices (Icelandic inshore shrimp survey) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | target HRproxy | 0.346 | Mean HRproxy in 2010–2015 |
Precautionary approach | Ilim | 390 | Proxy for Blim. Biomass index value of 20% of the mean of the three highest indices. |
Itrigger | 390 | Ilim |
The ICES framework for short lived stocks for which analytical assessment is not possible but trends in biomass indicators are assumed to reflect changes in stock dynamics was applied (Category 3 stock, ICES, 2022). The advice rule applied to this stock was evaluated to be precautionary and in-line with the MSY approach (Woods et. al 2023).
The survey biomass index of northern shrimp in Arnarfjörður, along with catch, is used to calculate HRproxy (catch/survey biomass). The advice is based on multiplying the most recent index value with the target HRproxy value.
Northern shrimp Arnarfjörður. Advice calculation.
Ay: Catch advice for 2024/2025 | 169 |
Biomass index | |
Latest index value (I2025) | 277 |
Fishing pressure proxy | |
target HRproxy: Mean HRproxy in 2010–2015 | 0.346 |
Biomass safeguard | |
Index trigger value (Itrigger) | 390 |
b: Index relative to trigger value, if I2025/Itrigger > 1 then 1 otherwise 0 | 0 |
Precautionary multiplier to maintain biomass above Blim with 95% probability | |
Catch advice for 2025/20261) | 0 |
% advice change2) | -100 |
1) Ay+1 = Iy× target HRproxy × b | |
2) The figures in the table are rounded. Calculations were done with unrounded inputs, and compared values may not match exactly when calculated using the rounded figures in the table. | |
Prospects
Since 2011, the mean length of females has been lower and female maximum length has not reached the same length as before. Juvenile index has been low since 2017, with the exception of 2024 (MFRI Assessment Reports 2025).
Other information
The haddock index has been high in 2020-2025 (MFRI Assessment Reports 2025). Hence, predation pressure is relatively high.
The advice rule used for this stock was developed under the assumption of stable stock sizes of the predator species that prey on shrimp. Should these stock sizes change considerably the advice rule may no longer be valid.
Advice, Tac and catch
Northern shrimp Arnarfjörður. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1990/1991 | 700 | 700 | 720 |
1991/1992 | 600 | 600 | 600 |
1992/1993 | 750 | 750 | 751 |
1993/1994 | 850 | 850 | 853 |
1994/1995 | 700 | 700 | 700 |
1995/1996 | 700 | 700 | 707 |
1996/1997 | 700 | 700 | 720 |
1997/1998 | 550 | 550 | 541 |
1998/1999 | 550 | 550 | 551 |
1999/2000 | 550 | 550 | 549 |
2000/2001 | 650 | 650 | 639 |
2001/2002 | 750 | 750 | 752 |
2002/2003 | 650 | 650 | 637 |
2003/2004 | 750 | 750 | 443 |
2004/2005 | 450 | 450 | 440 |
2005/2006 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
2006/2007 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
2007/2008 | 150 | 150 | 150 |
2008/2009 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
2009/2010 | 300 | 300 | 306 |
2010/2011 | 400 | 400 | 337 |
2011/2012 | 200 | 200 | 224 |
2012/2013 | 450 | 450 | 475 |
2013/2014 | 200 | 200 | 201 |
2014/2015 | 350 | 350 | 366 |
2015/2016 | 250 | 250 | 258 |
2016/2017 | 167 | 167 | 124 |
2017/2018 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2018/2019 | 139 | 139 | 137 |
2019/2020 | 197 | 197 | 185 |
2020/2021 | 184 | 184 | 199 |
2021/2022 | 148 | 148 | 150 |
2022/2023 | 242 | 242 | 243 |
2023/2024 | 166 | 166 | 165 |
2024/2025 | 169 | 169 | 154 |
2025/2026 | 0 |
References and further reading
ICES. 2025. ICES Guidelines - Advice rules for stocks in category 2 and 3. Version 3. ICES Guidelines and Policies - Advice Technical Guidelines. 31 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.28506179
Pamela J. Woods, Bjarki Þór Elvarsson og Ingibjörg G. Jónsdóttir. 2023. Management strategy evaluation of harvest rates of the Northern shrimp Pandalus borealis in Arnarfjörður and Ísafjarðardjúp, Iceland. HV2023-45.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Northern shrimp Arnarfjörður. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 7 October 2025.