Blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou
Publication of Advice: 30 September 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Norway is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 851 344 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and FPA; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, BPA, and Blim.
Blue whiting. Total and Icelandic catches, recruitment at age 1, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of assessement and reference points
Basis of the advice | Long-term management strategy |
Management plan | A long-term management strategy was agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Norway, and subsequently by UK in 2021 (Anon 2021). ICES evaluated the strategy and found it to be precautionary (ICES 2016, 2017) |
Assessment type | Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) |
Input data | Commercial catches, preliminary estimate of catch-at-age in the year (Q1--Q2) in which the assessment is carried out. One survey index (International Blue Whiting Spawning Stock Survey [IBWSS; A1142] ages 1-8, 2004-2025, excluding 2010 and 2020). Time invariant maturity at age was estimated in 1994 by combining maturity ogives from the southern and northern areas. Weight at age estimated annually from commercial data, including preliminary estimates of weight-at-age in the year of the assessment (Q1–Q2). Time invariant natural mortality fixed at 0.2 for all ages, derived in the 1980s from age compositions before the targeted fishery started. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY | MSY Btrigger | 2 250 000 | BPA |
FMSY | 0.32 | Stochastic simulations with segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship capped to FP05 | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 1 500 000 | Approximately Bloss |
BPA | 2 250 000 | Blim × exp(1.645 × s), s = 0.246 | |
FPA | 0.32 | FP05; the F that leads to SSB ≥ Blim with 95% probability | |
Long-term management strategy | SSBmgt_lower | 1 500 000 | Blim |
SSBmgt | 2 250 000 | BPA | |
Fmgt_lower | 0.05 | Arbitrary low F | |
Fmgt | 0.32 | FMSY |
Prospects
Blue whiting. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages 3–7 (2025) | 0.68 | From the assessment (based on assumed catch in 2025). |
SSB (2026) | 3 645 041 | From the forecast for 2026; in tonnes. |
Rage 1 (2025) | 22 062 028 | Geometric mean (1996–2024); in thousands. |
Rage 1 (2026-2027) | 22 062 028 | Geometric mean (1996–2024); in thousands. |
Total catch (2025) | 1 751 013 | As estimated by ICES, based on declared national quotas and expected uptake; in tonnes. |
Blue whiting. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis | Catch (2026) | Fishing mortality (2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | % Change in catch2) | Advice change3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Long-term management strategy: F = Fmgt | 851 344 | 0.32 | 3 838 995 | 5.3 | -51.0 | -41 |
F=F2025 | 1 561 172 | 0.68 | 3 162 004 | -13.3 | -10.8 | 8 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | ||||||
2) Advice value for 2026 relative to expected catch in 2025 (1 751 013 t) | ||||||
3) Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 (1 447 054 t) | ||||||
The advice for 2026 is 41% lower than in 2025 because of a decline in stock biomass and a downward revision of the perception of the stock biomass over the recent years.
Quality of the assessment
This year’s assessment shows a substantial downward revision of the estimated SSB, an upward revision of fishing mortality over the recent years, and a downward revision of the 2021 and 2022 recruitment estimates compared to last year’s assessment (Figure 2). These revisions are caused by the low abundance estimates in the 2025 IBWSS survey, which indicated a 34% decline in total stock abundance.
The survey index (IBWSS) indicated a low recruitment for 2025 (2024 year class). The model used for the current assessment subsequently estimated recruitment in 2025 to be 16.9 billion, which is lower than the recruitment estimates for 2023 (19.4 billion) and 2024 (18.8 billion), and the long-term geometric mean (22.0 billion; 1996-2024). This was however not corroborated by other surveys not currently used in the assessment, which point towards a higher recruitment in 2025 compared to 2023 and 2024. It was therefore decided to replace the recruitment estimate of the assessment model for 2025 with the long-term geometric mean.
Blue whiting. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024).
Other Information
There have been consistent deviations from the long-term management strategy since 2018 as evident from the sum of unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the management strategy (ICES, 2016a), the implementation error in the form of a consistent overshoot of the total allowable catch (TAC) was not included. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach or the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.
Both the 2020 and 2021 year classes are among the highest in the time series and were fully recruited to the fishery in 2025. In 2026, the fishery will still largely depend on these two year classes, with 18% and 37% of the catch predicted to consist of fish from the 2020 and 2021 year classes, respectively. The history of the stock shows that subsequent years of low recruitment after a period of high recruitment may cause the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) to quickly drop to lower levels and would lead to a reduction in future advice. The most recent year classes (2022, 2023 and 2024) are estimated to be small by the assessment, while recruitment survey indices not used in the assessment but used as additional indicators indicate a strong 2024 year class compared to 2022 and 2023 – though not as high as those from 2020 and 2021 (Joint Norwegian-Russian survey Barents Sea (G5348), International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas in May (A3675, [IESNS]), the Faroese bottom-trawl survey in spring (G1264 [FO-GFS-Q1]) and the Icelandic bottom-trawl survey in spring (G3239 [IS-SMB])).
Advice, TAC and Catch
Blue whiting. Recommended TAC, national TAC and catches (tonnes).
Year | Recommended TAC | Iceland national TAC | Catches Iceland | Total national TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1987 | 950 000 | ||||
1988 | 832 000 | ||||
1989 | 630 000 | ||||
1990 | 600 000 | ||||
1991 | 670 000 | ||||
1992 | |||||
1993 | 490 000 | ||||
1994 | 485 000 | 650 000 | |||
1995 | 518 000 | 369 | 650 000 | 578 905 | |
1996 | 500 000 | 501 | 650 000 | 645 982 | |
1997 | 540 000 | 10 646 | 672 437 | ||
1998 | 650 000 | 68 681 | 1 128 969 | ||
1999 | 650 000 | 160 425 | 1 256 228 | ||
2000 | 800 000 | 260 938 | 1 412 927 | ||
2001 | 628 000 | 365 099 | 1 780 170 | ||
2002 | 0 | 282 000 | 286 430 | 1 556 792 | |
2003 | 600 000 | 318 000 | 501 496 | 2 321 406 | |
2004 | 925 000 | 713 000 | 422 078 | 2 380 161 | |
2005 | 1 075 000 | 345 000 | 265 515 | 2 034 309 | |
2006 | 1 500 000 | 352 600 | 314 768 | 2 100 000 | 1 976 176 |
2007 | 980 000 | 299 710 | 237 854 | 1 847 000 | 1 625 255 |
2008 | 835 000 | 202 836 | 163 793 | 1 250 000 | 1 260 615 |
2009 | 384 000 | 95 739 | 120 202 | 606 000 | 641 818 |
2010 | 540 000 | 87 625 | 87 908 | 548 000 | 526 357 |
2011 | 223 000 | 6 507 | 5 882 | 40 000 | 103 620 |
2012 | 391 000 | 63 447 | 63 056 | 391 000 | 384 021 |
2013 | 643 000 | 104 339 | 104 918 | 643 000 | 628 169 |
2014 | 948 950 | 194 722 | 182 879 | 1 200 000 | 1 155 279 |
2015 | 839 886 | 202 958 | 214 870 | 1 260 000 | 1 396 244 |
2016 | 776 391 | 163 570 | 186 914 | 1 147 000 | 1 183 187 |
2017 | 1 342 330 | 264 000 | 228 935 | 1 675 400 | 1 558 061 |
2018 | 1 387 872 | 275 971 | 292 952 | 1 727 964 | 1 711 477 |
2019 | 1 143 629 | 226 727 | 268 351 | 1 483 208 | 1 515 527 |
2020 | 1 161 615 | 230 111 | 243 725 | 1 478 358 | 1 495 248 |
2021 | 929 292 | 196 081 | 190 147 | 1 157 604 | 1 143 450 |
2022 | 752 736 | 174 557 | 191 813 | 752 736 | 1 038 736 |
2023 | 1 359 629 | 273 442 | 292 853 | 1 359 629 | 1 737 098 |
2024 | 1 529 754 | 309 524 | 321 572 | 1 529 754 | 1 816 792 |
2025 | 1 447 054 | 293 287 | 1 447 054 | ||
2026 | 851 344 |
References and further reading
Anon 2021. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and UK on the management of blue whiting in the north-east Atlantic in 2022. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/2ea04e97a8fd45c2b1758e2602e79c46/blue-whiting-agreed-record-october-2021.pdf
ICES. 2016. Report of the Workshop on Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) Long Term Management Strategy Evaluation (WKBWMS), 30 August 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:53. 104 pp.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Blue whiting. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30 september 2025.
ICES. 2025. Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in subareas 1-9, 12, and 14 (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2025. ICES Advice 2025, whb.27.1-91214. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202938
ICES. 2025. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.30233824