Capelin Mallotus villosus
Publication of Advice: 29 January 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources (GINR) advise that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 197 474 tonnes.
Stock development
The spawning-stock size in 2026 is above Blim; no reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.
Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immatures from autumn surveys, and SSB at spawning time (with 90% confidence).
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Coastal states management plan |
Management plan | See HCR (Anon 2023, ICES 2023). |
Assessment type | Survey index based estimates. |
Input data for the initial advice | The abundance estimate of immature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the intermediate advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the final advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn and winter. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | Bmgt | 114 000 | Defined according to the agreed management plan (ICES 2023b), in tonnes |
Utrigger | 50 | Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions | |
Cap | 127 | Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 114 000 | Mean size of three small SSBs that produced average recruitment (ICES 2023a) |
Prospects
Capelin. Inputs to the harvest control rule.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2025/2026) prior to survey | No initial TAC advised | |
Harvestable biomass (2026) | 601 602 | Median of SSB on January 15 according to the autumn (1/3) and winter (2/3) surveys, in tonnes |
Cod stock size (2026) | 783 106 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Haddock stock size (2026) | 260 989 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Saithe stock size (2026) | 298 002 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Capelin. Projection based on adopted harvest control rule in tonnes.
Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | SSB (2026)1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 197 474 | 260 947 | |
1) SSB on March 15th 2026 | |||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026(3) relative to advice value for 2025/2026 (2) (197474 t) | |||
The results of the acoustic measurements in September 2025 and January 2026 on biomass of the mature part of the stock, accounting for the results of the predation model, indicate that the goal of the harvest control rule of leaving at least 114 000 t (Blim) for spawning with a 95% probability is reached with catch of 197 474 tonnes.
Quality of the Assessment
The estimate stock size of mature capelin January 15th is based on both autumn (weighted 1/3) and winter measurements (weighted 2/3), both of which are considered to have covered the stock’s distribution area and carried out under mostly good conditions. The winter measurement was considerably higher (710.2 thousand t; CV=0.24) than the autumn measurement (418 thousand t; CV=0.20), but the reasons for this are unknown.
Other information
The results of the acoustic survey during 19–25 January 2026 were that about 55% (382 thous. tonnes) of the fishable stock was east of Iceland, following the traditional spawning migration clockwise to the area south and west of the country, and about 45% northwest of Iceland (328 thous. tonnes). It is unclear whether the capelin there will migrate westwards and spawn west of Iceland, spawn north of Iceland, or follow the traditional spawning route east of Iceland, and MFRI will explore that with a survey in February. Until more is known about the migration route that the capelin observed in the north and northwest of Iceland will take towards the spawning grounds, the MFRI proposes that the fishery will also take place north of Iceland instead of exclusively on the part of the stock currently east of Iceland, to avoid a risk of a loss in the diversity of the stock components (e.g. spawning locations).
The capelin had a similar distribution in the winter of 2023 (the parents‘ generation).
Advice, TAC and Catch
Capelin. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches.
Fishing year | Rec. initial TAC | Rec. final TAC | Final TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1986/1987 | 1 100 000 | 1 333 400 | 1 290 000 | 1 334 000 |
1987/1988 | 500 000 | 1 115 800 | 1 115 000 | 1 117 000 |
1988/1989 | 900 000 | 1 036 500 | 1 065 000 | 1 036 000 |
1989/1990 | 900 000 | 807 800 | 900 000 | 808 000 |
1990/1991 | 600 000 | 313 600 | 250 000 | 313 000 |
1991/1992 | 0 | 677 100 | 740 000 | 677 000 |
1992/1993 | 500 000 | 787 700 | 900 000 | 788 000 |
1993/1994 | 900 000 | 1 178 700 | 1 250 000 | 1 179 000 |
1994/1995 | 950 000 | 863 900 | 850 000 | 864 000 |
1995/1996 | 800 000 | 929 300 | 1 390 000 | 926 000 |
1996/1997 | 1 100 000 | 1 570 900 | 1 600 000 | 1 569 000 |
1997/1998 | 850 000 | 1 244 900 | 1 265 000 | 1 245 000 |
1998/1999 | 950 000 | 1 099 400 | 1 200 000 | 1 100 000 |
1999/2000 | 866 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 931 000 |
2000/2001 | 650 000 | 1 110 000 | 1 090 000 | 1 070 000 |
2001/2002 | 700 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 249 000 |
2002/2003 | 690 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 989 000 |
2003/2004 | 555 000 | 875 000 | 900 000 | 743 000 |
2004/2005 | 335 000 | 985 000 | 985 000 | 784 000 |
2005/2006 | 0 | 238 000 | 235 000 | 247 000 |
2006/2007 | 0 | 385 000 | 385 000 | 377 000 |
2007/2008 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 203 000 |
2008/2009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 000 |
2009/2010 | 0 | 150 000 | 150 000 | 151 000 |
2010/2011 | 0 | 390 000 | 390 000 | 391 000 |
2011/2012 | 366 000 | 765 000 | 765 000 | 748 000 |
2012/2013 | 0 | 570 000 | 570 000 | 551 000 |
2013/2014 | 0 | 160 000 | 160 000 | 142 000 |
2014/2015 | 225 000 | 580 000 | 580 000 | 517 000 |
2015/2016 | 53 600 | 173 000 | 173 000 | 173 500 |
2016/2017 | 0 | 299 000 | 299 000 | 297 732 |
2017/2018 | 0 | 285 000 | 285 000 | 287 000 |
2018/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020/2021 | 169 520 | 127 300 | 127 300 | 128 647 |
2021/2022 | 400 000 | 869 600 | 869 600 | 689 200 |
2022/2023 | 400 000 | 459 800 | 459 800 | 330 051 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024/2025 | 0 | 8 589 | 8 589 | 9 439 |
2025/2026 | 46 384 | 197 474 |
References and further reading
Anon. 2015. Agreed Record of Conclusions of Coastal State consultations on the management of the capelin stock in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area. 2015. Reykjavík, Iceland. 7–8 May 2015. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/37b66bdf33d84e99924bb27553641719/samledokument-lodde-mai-2015---agreed-records---bilateral-avtale.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
Anon. 2023. Framework arrangement between Greenland and Iceland on the conservation and management of capelin. Reykjávik, Iceland 3 July 2023. 4 pp. https://www.althingi.is/altext/pdf/154/fylgiskjol/s1655-f_I.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop of Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Copenhangen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 335 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295
ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.