NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING
Clupea harengus

Advice 2027

588 004

tonnes

Advice 2026

533 914

tonnes

Advice change

10 %

Publication of Advice: 30. september 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 588004 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY. Spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, and between Bpa and Blim.

Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Catch by Iceland and others, recruitment, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95 % confidence intervals.

Basis of assessement and reference points

Basis of the advice

Management strategy.

Management plan

A long-term management strategy was agreed by coastal states in 2018 (Anon, 2018) and subsequently by the UK (Anon, 2020).

Assessment type

Age-based analytical model (SAM).

Input data

Commercial catches-at-age (stock weight-at-age from surveys and, since 2009, from catch sampling). Four survey indices: Norwegian acoustic survey on spawning grounds in February/March (NASF [A7918] 1988–1989, 1994–1996, 1998–2000, 2005–2008, 2015–2026), International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas (IESNS A3675) covering the adult stock in the Nordic seas (1996–2026), and the juvenile stock in the Barents Sea (1991–2002, 2005–2007, 2009–2019, 2021,2024,2026) the Norwegian and Russian Barents Sea ecosystem surveys in August-October (BESS [A5216], 2004–2025) covering the juvenile stock in the Barents Sea and a time series of tagging indices based on RFID (TAGHER [S8417], 2017–2025). Maturity ogive variable by year-class strength. Natural mortalities are fixed values from historical analyses (age 2 = 0.9, ages greater than 2 = 0.15).

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY approach

MSY Btrigger

3

Bpa; in million tonnes.

FMSY

0.21

Stochastic simulations, capped to FP05.

Precautionary approach

Blim

2

Lowest spawning-stock biomass (SSB) that produced large recruitment, determined as SSB corresponding to the 1991 year class; in million tonnes; in million tonnes.

BPA

3

Based on Blim and assessment uncertainties.BPA = Blim × exp(1.645 × s), s = 0.2 ; in million tonnes.

FPA

0.21

FP05. the F that leads to SSB ≥ Blim with 95% probability.

Long-term management strategy

F mgt

0.14

Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025.

SSB mgt_lower

2

Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. SSB values in million tonnes.

SSB mgt

3

Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. SSB values in million tonnes.

F mgt_lower

0.05

Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025.

Prospects

Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.

Variable

Value

Notes

F5-12+ (2026)

0.164

Based on assumed catches in 2026.

SSB (2027)

3.223

From the assessment model; in million tonnes.

Recruitment age 2 (2026)

15.27

Point estimate from the assessment model; billions.

Recruitment age 2 (2027)

9.005

Median stochastic recruitment based on the years 1988–2024; billions.

Catch (2026)

584 025

Sum of declared unilateral quotas; tonnes.

Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.

Basis

Total catch

Fishing pressure

SSB

% change

Probability of SSB2028 < Blim (%)

2027

2027

2028

SSB1)

Advice2)

Catch3)

Agreed management strategy

588 004

0.140

3 341 564

3.7

10

0.70

4.1

MSY approach

847 221

0.210

3 119 560

-3.2

59

45

8.3

F=F2026

679 132

0.164

3 267 552

1.4

27

16

5.1

1) SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2027 (3 223 000 tonnes)

2) Advice value for 2027 relative to advice value for 2026 (533 914 tonnes)

3) Catch in 2027 relative to catch in 2026 (419 205 tonnes)

The advice for 2027 is higher than the advice for 2026 because the 2021 and 2022 year classes, which are stronger than average, are recruiting to the spawning stock. Spawning-stock biomass (SSB) is predicted to be above the long-term management strategy Btrigger at the start of 2027, so Fmgt is applied without reduction.

Quality of the Assessement

The 2021 and 2022 year classes are both estimated to be above average. With another year of radio-frequency identification (RFID) tagging data, the 2021 year class has been revised downward and the 2022 slightly upward. SSB in 2020 and 2021 has been revised downward because maturity at age has now been recalculated for the 2016 and 2017 year classes and is lower than previously assumed.

The 2026 recruitment estimate from the model is above average but remains highly uncertain. This has, however, only a negligible impact on the advised catches for 2027, as at age 3 its contribution to the fishery and SSB is negligible.

Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2022–2025). The reference points were revised in 2025 following a benchmark, and only assessment results from the last year should be compared to the reference points indicated.

Other Information

Since 2013, catches have been consistently above the levels adviced by ICES. The advice for 2027 is based on the target fishing mortality in the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation; it does not consider the deviations from the long-term management strategy as evident from the sum of declared unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the long-term management strategy (ICES, 2018a), a consistent overshooting of the total allowable catch (TAC) was not included in the simulations. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.

A Management strategy evaluation (MSE) with the updated reference points has not been undertaken, and the simulations do not account for catches consistently exceeding ICES advice. Nevertheless, the management strategy remains appropriate for 2027 advice, as the probability of SSB falling below Blim in 2028 is lower with the plan (p = 4.1%) than with the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach (p = 8.3%).

Advice, TAC and Catch

Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).

Year

Recommended TAC ICES

Iceland national TAC

Catches Iceland

Total national TAC

Total catch

2011

1 170 000

145 000

151 074

988 000

992 998

2012

833 000

121 000

120 956

833 000

825 999

2013

619 000

90 000

90 729

692 000

684 743

2014

418 487

61 000

58 828

436 893

461 306

2015

283 013

41 000

42 626

328 206

328 740

2016

316 876

46 000

50 418

376 612

383 174

2017

437 364

103 000

90 400

805 142

721 566

2018

384 197

72 428

83 392

546 448

592 899

2019

588 562

102 174

107 889

773 750

777 165

2020

525 594

91 243

98 173

693 915

720 937

2021

651 033

117 707

114 299

881 097

851 813

2022

598 588

108 225

112 739

827 963

813 798

2023

511 171

90 954

92 197

692 942

680 193

2024

390 010

61 395

62 967

446 928

457 129

2025

401 794

62 491

65 859

435 010

419 857

2026

533 914

83 291

584 025

2027

588 004

References and further reading

Anon. 2018. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Iceland, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Norway and the Russian Federation on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring stock in the North-East Atlantic in 2019. London, 6 November 2018. 6 pp. see here

Anon. 2020. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring in the North-East Atlantic in 2021. Video-conference, 20-21 October 2020. 7 pp. see here

ICES. 2016. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Pelagic Stocks (WKPELA), 29 February–4 March 2016, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:34. 106 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5581

ICES. 2018a. Report of the Workshop on a long-term management strategy for Norwegian Spring-spawning herring (WKNSSHMSE), 26–27 August 2018, Torshavn, Faroe Islands. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:53. 113 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5583.

ICES. 2018b. Report of the Workshop on the determination of reference points for Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring (WKNSSHREF), 10–11 April 2018, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:45. 83 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5582

ICES. 2025a. Benchmark workshop on Mackerel and Norwegian spring-spawning herring (WKBMACNSSH). ICES Scientific Reports. 7:64. 509 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.29279615

ICES. 2025b. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:81. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.30233824

ICES. 2025c. Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5, and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2025. ICES Advice 2025, her.27.1-24a514a. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202611

MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30. September 2026.