NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING Clupea harengus
Publication of Advice: 30. september 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the UK, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 533 914 tonnes.
Stock development over time
Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY. Spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, and between Bpa and Blim.
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Catch by Iceland and others, recruitment, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of assessement and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management strategy. |
Management plan | A long-term management strategy was agreed by coastal states in 2018 (Anon, 2018) and subsequently by the UK (Anon, 2020). |
Assessment type | Age-based analytical model (SAM). |
Input data | Commercial catches-at-age (stock weight-at-age from surveys and, since 2009, from catch sampling). Four survey indices: Norwegian acoustic survey on spawning grounds in February/March (NASF [A7918] 1988–1989, 1994–1996, 1998–2000, 2005–2008, 2015–2025), International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas (IESNS A3675) covering the adult stock in the Nordic seas (1996–2025), and the juvenile stock in the Barents Sea (1991–2002, 2005–2007, 2009-2019, 2021,2024) the Norwegian and Russian Barents Sea ecosystem surveys in August-October (BESS [A5216], 2004-2024) covering the juvenile stock in the Barents Sea and a time series of tagging indices based on RFID (TAGHER [S8417], 2017-2024). Maturity ogive variable by year-class strength. Natural mortalities are fixed values from historical analyses (age 2 = 0.9, ages greater than 2 = 0.15). |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 3.177 | Bpa; in million tonnes. |
FMSY | 0.21 | Stochastic simulations, capped to FP05. | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 2.286 | Lowest spawning-stock biomass (SSB) that produced large recruitment, determined as SSB corresponding to the 1991 year class; in million tonnes; in million tonnes. |
Bpa | 3.177 | Based on Blim and assessment uncertainties.Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 × s), s = 0.2 ; in million tonnes. | |
Fpa | 0.21 | FP05. the F that leads to SSB ≥ Blim with 95% probability. | |
Long-term management strategy | F mgt | 0.14 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. |
SSB mgt_lower | 2.286 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. SSB values in million tonnes. | |
SSB mgt | 3.177 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. SSB values in million tonnes. | |
F mgt_lower | 0.05 | Precautionary HCR evaluated by MSE. Note it has not been fully tested whether it remains precautionary with the reference points updated in 2025. |
Prospects
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
F5-12+ (2025) | 0.138 | Based on assumed catches in 2025. |
SSB (2026) | 3.012 | From the assessment model; in million tonnes. |
Recruitment age 2 (2025) | 9.853 | Median stochastic recruitment based on the years 1988–2024; billions. |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 9.489 | Median stochastic recruitment based on the years 1988–2024; billions. |
Catch (2025) | 435 010 | Sum of declared unilateral quotas; tonnes. |
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis | Catch (2026) | Fishing pressure (2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) | Catch change3) | % probability of falling below Blim in 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Agreed management strategy | 533 914 | 0.123 | 3 823 805 | 27 | 33 | 23 | 0.5 |
MSY approach4) | 828 441 | 0.199 | 3 602 227 | 20 | 106 | 90 | 1.8 |
F=F2025 | 593 409 | 0.138 | 3 779 317 | 25 | 48 | 36 | 1.1 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||||
2) Catch in 2026 relative to catch in 2025 (435010 tonnes) | |||||||
3) Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 (401794 tonnes) | |||||||
4) MSY nálgun;FMSY × SSB 2026 / MSY Btrigger | |||||||
The advice for 2026 increases compared to 2025 because the incoming year classes (2021 and 2022) are estimated to be stronger than average. Because spawning-stock biomass (SSB) is predicted to be below the long-term management strategy Btrigger at the start of 2026, the TAC constraint (-20%/+25%) in the management strategy does not apply.
Quality of the Assessement
The stock was benchmarked in 2025. In addition to changes in the model configuration, the new assessment model now includes radio-frequency identification (RFID) tagging data (as indices for age 3-12+) and one new recruitment survey (ages 2 and 3) from the Norwegian and Russian Barents Sea ecosystem survey in August-October (BESS). The addition of new data has improved the goodness of fit of the model, including the retrospective pattern, compared to the benchmark one (ICES, 2025b). Reference points have been updated; FMSY has been revised upwards, and MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim have been reduced.
The Barents Sea was not covered during the International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas (IESNS) in 2025 and there is therefore no data to inform the assessment on recruitment at age 2. The recruitment estimate for 2025 is therefore highly uncertain (Figure 1). This has however only a negligible impact on the advised catches for 2026, as at age 3 its contribution to the fishery and SSB is negligible
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024). The reference points were revised in 2025 following a benchmark, and only assessment results from the last year should be compared to the reference points indicated.
Other Information
Since 2013, catches have been consistently above the levels adviced by ICES. The advice for 2026 is based on the target fishing mortality in the long-term management strategy agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway, and the Russian Federation; it does not consider the deviations from the long-term management strategy as evident from the sum of declared unilateral quotas. During the evaluation of the long-term management strategy (ICES, 2018a), a consistent overshooting of the total allowable catch (TAC) was not included in the simulations. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the long term.
A Management strategy evaluation (MSE) with the updated reference points has not been undertaken, and the simulations do not account for catches consistently exceeding ICES advice. Nevertheless, the management strategy remains appropriate for 2026 advice, as the probability of SSB falling below Blim in 2027 is lower with the plan (p = 0.5%) than with the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach (p = 1.8%).
Advice, TAC and Catch
Norwegian spring-spawning herring. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Year | Recommended TAC ICES | Iceland national TAC | Catches Iceland | Total national TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2011 | 1 170 000 | 145 000 | 151 074 | 988 000 | 841 924 |
2012 | 833 000 | 121 000 | 120 956 | 833 000 | 705 043 |
2013 | 619 000 | 90 000 | 90 729 | 692 000 | 594 014 |
2014 | 418 487 | 61 000 | 58 828 | 436 893 | 402 478 |
2015 | 283 013 | 41 000 | 42 626 | 328 206 | 286 114 |
2016 | 316 876 | 46 000 | 50 418 | 376 612 | 332 756 |
2017 | 437 364 | 103 000 | 90 400 | 805 142 | 631 166 |
2018 | 384 197 | 72 428 | 83 392 | 546 448 | 509 507 |
2019 | 588 562 | 102 174 | 107 889 | 773 750 | 669 276 |
2020 | 525 594 | 91 243 | 98 173 | 693 915 | 622 764 |
2021 | 651 033 | 117 707 | 114 299 | 881 097 | 737 514 |
2022 | 598 588 | 108 225 | 112 739 | 827 963 | 813 834 |
2023 | 511 171 | 90 954 | 92 197 | 692 942 | 680 552 |
2024 | 390 010 | 61 395 | 62 967 | 446 928 | 394 162 |
2025 | 401 794 | 62 491 | 435 010 | ||
2026 | 533 914 |
References and further reading
Anon. 2018. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Iceland, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Norway and the Russian Federation on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring stock in the North-East Atlantic in 2019. London, 6 November 2018. 6 pp. see here
Anon. 2020. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, the Russian Federation and the United Kingdom on the management of the Norwegian spring-spawning (Atlanto-Scandian) herring in the North-East Atlantic in 2021. Video-conference, 20-21 October 2020. 7 pp. see here
ICES. 2016. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Pelagic Stocks (WKPELA), 29 February–4 March 2016, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:34. 106 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5581
ICES. 2018a. Report of the Workshop on a long-term management strategy for Norwegian Spring-spawning herring (WKNSSHMSE), 26–27 August 2018, Torshavn, Faroe Islands. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:53. 113 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5583.
ICES. 2018b. Report of the Workshop on the determination of reference points for Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring (WKNSSHREF), 10–11 April 2018, ICES Headquarters, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2018/ACOM:45. 83 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5582
ICES. 2025a. Benchmark workshop on Mackerel and Norwegian spring-spawning herring (WKBMACNSSH). ICES Scientific Reports. 7:64. 509 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.29279615
ICES. 2025b. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. 6:81. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.30233824
ICES. 2025c. Herring (Clupea harengus) in subareas 1, 2, 5, and divisions 4.a and 14.a, Norwegian spring-spawning herring (the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic Ocean). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2025. ICES Advice 2025, her.27.1-24a514a. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202611
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. NORWEGIAN SPRING-SPAWNING HERRING. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30. September 2025.