LING Molva molva
Publication of Advice: 12th June 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be no more than 7 657 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is above FMGT and FMSY but below Fpa. Spawning-stock size is above MGT Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Ling. Catch by gear types, recruitment (age 2), fishing mortality (ages 8–11), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMGT = 0.3 applied to ages 8 to 11, modified by the ratio SSBy/MGT Btrigger when SSBy < MGT Btrigger. The expected range of realized fishing mortalities (F) following the management plan (FMGT) is between 0.21 and 0.44. |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Age and length data from commercial catches and surveys (IS-SMB, IS-SMH and IS-SMN) and total catches. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | FMSY | 0.3 | Leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations (EqSim). |
MSY Btrigger | 11 100 | Based on Bpa | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 11 100 | From the management plan |
FMGT | 0.3 | From the management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 9 000 | Lowest SSB (2016) where large recruitment was observed |
Bpa | 11 100 | Blim x e1.645×0.2 | |
Flim | 0.95 | Fishing mortality that in stochastic equilibrium will result in median SSB at Blim | |
Fpa | 0.62 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is < 5% |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has a fisheries management plan for Icelandic ling which was evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2022). It is considered to be precautionary and conforms to ICES MSY approach. According to the management plan, FY/Y+1, i.e. the advice fishing mortality that is applied from 1 September in year Y to 31 August in year Y+1, is calculated from the harvest control rule (HCR) as:
\[ \text{F}_{Y⁄Y+1}=\text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{trigger}} ,1\right) \text{F}_{mgt} \]
To calculate the catch in the last four months of the year Y (September through December), the following F is used in the year Y:
\[ \text{F}_Y=\frac{2}{3}\text{F}_{SQ} + \frac{1}{3}\text{F}_{MBT} \]
In year Y+1, F(Y⁄Y+1) is used. Finally, the catch advice for the year Y/Y+1 is calculated using the following formula:
\[ C_{Y⁄Y+1}=\frac{1}{3}C[\text{F}_Y]+ \frac{2}{3} C[\text{F}_{Y/Y+1}] \]
where the catch C[.] is calculated using the Baranov catch equation with the corresponding biomass, natural mortality, and fishing mortality values in each year.
Ling. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages 8-11 (2026) | 0.31 | Jan-Aug: status quo F (average over the last three years); Sep-Dec: FMGT |
SSB (2027) | 31 840 | Short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2027) | 3 667 | Averaged from the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
Recruitment age 2 (2028) | 3 667 | Averaged from the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
Catch (2026) | 8 232 | Results from Fages 5-10 (2026); in tonnes. |
Ling Projection of SSB (tonnes) on catch according to management plans.
Basis | Catch (2026/2027) | Fishing mortality (2026/2027) | SSB (2028) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 7 657 | 0.3 | 29 074 | -9 | 21 |
1) SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2027 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2026/2027 relative to advice value for 2025/2026 (6330 t) | |||||
The advised catch has increased because of an upwards revision of the estimated stock size.
Quality of the assessment
Spawning stock biomass and recruitment show an upward revision and fishing pressure shows a downward revision in the latest assessment.
Ling. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates 2022–2025.
Advice, TAC and catch
Ling. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations3) | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 9 327 | 837 | 9 327 |
2011/2012 | 8 800 | 9 000 | 10 072 | 1 123 | 10 072 |
2012/2013 | 12 000 | 12 000 | 11 125 | 1 368 | 11 140 |
2013/2014 | 14 000 | 14 000 | 11 794 | 1 763 | 12 982 |
2014/2015 | 14 300 | 14 300 | 11 684 | 1 974 | 13 658 |
2015/2016 | 16 200 | 16 200 | 9 773 | 1 456 | 11 229 |
2016/2017 | 9 343 | 9 343 | 7 291 | 1 135 | 8 426 |
2017/2018 | 8 5981) | 8 598 | 7 017 | 1 309 | 8 326 |
2018/2019 | 6 2551) | 6 255 | 6 927 | 1 101 | 8 028 |
2019/2020 | 6 5991) | 6 599 | 5 972 | 1 183 | 7 155 |
2020/2021 | 5 7001) | 5 700 | 6 201 | 1 012 | 7 213 |
2021/2022 | 4 7351) | 4 735 | 5 814 | 885 | 6 699 |
2022/2023 | 6 0982) | 6 098 | 7 537 | 926 | 8 463 |
2023/2024 | 6 5662) | 6 566 | 8 202 | 1 288 | 9 490 |
2024/2025 | 6 4792) | 6 479 | 8 162 | 1 040 | 9 202 |
2025/2026 | 6 3302) | 6 330 | |||
2026/2027 | 7 6572) | ||||
1) 18 % harvest control rule | |||||
2) FMGT = 0.3 | |||||
3) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2022. Workshop on the evaluation of assessments and management plans for ling, tusk, plaice and Atlantic wolffish in Icelandic waters (WKICEMP). ICES Scientific Reports. 4:37. 271 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19663971
MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Ling. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 12 June 2026.