DEMERSAL BEAKED REDFISH
Sebastes mentella
Publication of Advice: 6 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the MSY approach and precautionary considerations are applied, catches in 2025/2026 should be 0 tonnes.
Stock Development
Fishing pressure is below FMSY and Fpa, and spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Demersal beaked redfish. Catches, recruitment (age 3), fishing mortality (fully selected), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | MSY approach |
Management plan | There is no management plan for this stock |
Assessment type | Analytical assessment (Gadget) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast |
Input data | Commercial catches; indices from the autumn survey in Icelandic waters (IS-SMH) length composition from commercial catches; age- and length distributions from the Icelandic bottom trawl survey |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 217 563 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.041 | Fishing mortality that leads to MSY; estimated using stochastic simulations | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 156 568 | Bloss. Median SSB (2000–2005) |
Bpa | 217 563 | Blim × e1.645σ, σ = 0.2. | |
Fpa | 0.041 | Maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is < 5% |
Prospects
Demersal beaked redfish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
F (2025) | 0.04 | F that corresponds to assumed catch in 2025 |
SSB (2026) | 92 057 | Projected from the assessment; tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2026) | 0.038 | Geometric mean of recruitment from 2020-2024; millions |
Recruitment age 3 (2027) | 0.038 | Geometric mean of recruitment from 2020-2024; millions |
Catch (2025) | 3 800 | Allocated catch for 2025; tonnes |
Demersal beaked redfish. Projection of SSB (tonnes)
Basis | Catch (2026) | F (2026) | SSB (2027) | SSB change (%)1) | TAC change (%)2) | Advice change (%)3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | 0 | 0.00 | 91 171 | -1.0 | -100 | 0 |
Other scenarios | ||||||
FMSY*SSB2025/MSY Btrigger | 1 466 | 0.02 | 89 746 | -2.5 | -61 | |
FMSY | 3 284 | 0.04 | 87 977 | -4.4 | -14 | |
F2026 = F2024 | 2 500 | 0.03 | 88 739 | -3.6 | -34 | |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | ||||||
2) TAC value for 2025/2026 relative to TAC value for 2024/2025 (3800 t) | ||||||
3) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (0 t) | ||||||
The advice is zero because there is no fishing mortality value that will recover the stock above Blim by the end of the advice period.
Quality of assessment
This year’s assessment is consistent with previous assessments.
Demersal beaked redfish. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates.
Other information
Demersal beaked redfish is a slow-growing, late-maturing (>10 years) species and is therefore considered highly vulnerable to overexploitation. Since 2007, survey estimates of demersal beaked redfish have consistently shown very low abundance of pre-fishery juveniles (< 30 cm). This raises concerns about the productivity of the stock.
Regardless of future recruitment, the SSB will likely remain below Blim over the next decade because of the late maturation of this species.
Bycatch of demersal beaked redfish should be kept as low as possible, because of poor status of this stock.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Demersal beaked redfish. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 10 000 | 12 500 | 12 085 |
2011/2012 | 10 000 | 12 000 | 12 321 |
2012/2013 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 10 396 |
2013/2014 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 753 |
2014/2015 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 037 |
2015/2016 | 10 000 | 10 000 | 9 599 |
2016/2017 | 12 922 | 12 922 | 8 556 |
2017/2018 | 11 786 | 11 786 | 10 540 |
2018/2019 | 13 012 | 13 012 | 8 660 |
2019/2020 | 12 492 | 12 492 | 10 637 |
2020/2021 | 12 384 | 12 384 | 11 503 |
2021/2022 | 7 926 | 7 926 | 10 035 |
2022/2023 | 6 336 | 6 336 | 8 301 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | 2 146 |
2024/2025 | 0 | 3 800 | |
2025/2026 | 0 |
References and Further Reading
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Icelandic slope beaked redfish. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.