COMMON WHELK Buccinum undatum

Advice 2026/2027

189

tonnes

Advice 2025/2026

178

tonnes

Advice change

6 %

Publication of Advice: 12th June 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

MFRI advises in accordance with the MSY approach that catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be no more than 189 tonnes in Breiðafjörður.

Stock development

Fishing pressure is below FMSY and Flim. Stock biomass is above MSY Btrigger and Blim.

Common whelk. Catches, changes in relative biomass (B/BMSY) and relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY). Shaded areas represent 95% CI.

Basis of the assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice

MSY approach

Management plan

There is no management plan for this stock

Assessment type

Surplus production model (SPiCT)

Input data

Catch and standardized CPUE

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY approach

MSY Btrigger

0.5

A fraction of BMSY where production is 50% of MSY

FMSY

1

Fishing mortality values expressed relative to FMSY

Precautionary approach

Blim

0.3

A fraction of BMSY where production is 30% of MSY

Flim

1.7

Fishing mortality which results in median SSB at Blim

Prospects

Common whelk. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.

Variable

Value

Notes

Projected catch (2026)

173

Short term forecast under Fsq; in tonnes

Stock size B2027/BMSY (2027)

0.87

Short-term forecast at status quo F (Fsq)

Fishing mortality F2025/FMSY (2026)

0.64

Status quo F: F2025/FMSY

Common whelk. Projection of biomass (tonnes) based on the MSY approach

Basis

Catch (2026/2027)

Fishing mortality (2027)

Stock size (2028)

% Biomass change1)

% Advice change2)

MSY approach: FMSY

189

0.64

0.88

1

6

1) Stock size in 2028 relative to stock size in 2027

2) Advice value for 2027/2026 relative to advice value for 2026/2025 (178 t)

The advice for 2026/2027 is higher than the advice for 2025/2026 because the biomass index has increased.

Quality of the assessment

The assessment in 2026 is consistent with the previous assessments.

Common whelk Current assessment (red line) compared with two previous estimates.

Advice, tac and catch

Common whelk. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).

Fishing year

Recommended TAC

National TAC

Total catch

2012/2013

750

269

2013/2014

750

0

2014/2015

750

166

2015/2016

750

332

2016/2017

750

186

2017/2018

500

171

2018/2019

500

324

2019/2020

220

133

2020/2021

264

88

2021/2022

264

239

2022/2023

254

268

2023/2024

196

211

2024/2025

190

239

2025/2026

178

2026/2027

189

References and further reading

Pedersen, M. W., & Berg, C. W. (2017). A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time. Fish and Fisheries18(2), 226-243.

ICES. 2025. ICES Guidelines - Advice rules for stocks in category 2 and 3. Version 3. ICES Guidelines and Policies - Advice Technical Guidelines. 31 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.28506179

MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Common whelk. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 12 June 2026.