OFFSHORE SHRIMP Pandalus borealis

Advice 2026/2027

3 246

tonnes

Advice 2025/2026

4 537

tonnes

Advice change

-28 %

Publication of Advice: 31 August 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

MFRI advises in accordance with the MSY approach that catches in the fishing years 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 should be no more than 3 246 tonnes in each fishing year.

Stock development

Fishable biomass index is above Itrigger and Ilim and the fishing pressure is below Fproxy.

Northern shrimp offshore. Catches, Fproxy and fishable biomass indices with Itrigger and Ilim.

Basis of the Assessment and reference points*

Basis of the advice

MSY approach

Management plan

There is no management plan for this stock

Assessment type

Trends in biomass indicators

Input data

Commercial catch and survey biomass indices (Icelandic shrimp survey)

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY approach

Fproxy

0.2

Mean Fproxy in 2010–2015

Precautionary approach

Ilim

12 200

roxy for Blim. Biomass index value of 20% of the mean of the three highest indices.

Itrigger

12 200

Ilim

The ICES framework for short lived stocks for which analytical assessment is not possible but trends in biomass indicators are assumed to reflect changes in stock dynamics was applied (Category 3 stock, ICES, 2022). Survey biomass index of offshore northern shrimp, along with catch, is used to calculate Fproxy (catch/survey biomass). The advice is based on multiplying the most recent index value with the target Fproxy value.

Northern shrimp offshore Advice calculation

Ay: Catch advice for 2025/2026

4 537

Biomass index

Latest index value (I2026)

16 229

Fishing pressure proxy**

Fproxy: Mean Fproxy in 2010–2015

0.2

Biomass safeguard

Index trigger value (Itrigger)

12 200

b: Index relative to trigger value, min{I2026/Itrigger, 1}

1

Precautionary multiplier to maintain biomass above Blim with 95% probability

Catch advice for 2026/20271)

3 246

% advice change2)

-28

1) A~y+1~ = I~y~ × F~proxy~ × b

2) The figures in the table are rounded. Calculations were done with unrounded inputs, and compared values may not match exactly when calculated using the rounded figures in the table.

Prospects

The juvenile index has been low since 2004 and at historically low levels since 2015. The biomass index was relatively stable in 2012-2018 but has decreased since decreased and reached the lowest historical levels in 2026. The shrimp surveys therefore suggest that the stock will remain at low levels in coming years.

Other information

Next survey will be in 2028.

The abundance index of cod in the offshore shrimp survey has been high since 2014. Abundance of cod has also been high in the spring groundfish survey and the autumn groundfish survey. Therefore, it is assumed that predation of shrimp by cod has increased in recent years.

The sea bottom temperature has been slowly increasing after 2005.

Advice, Tac and catch

Northern shrimp offshore. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).

Fishing year

Recommended TAC

National TAC

Total catch

1991/1992

35  000

40  000

1992/1993

35  000

40  000

45  100

1993/1994

40  000

52  000

55  908

1994/1995

60  000

62  000

62  965

1995/1996

40  000

63  000

66  017

1996/1997

55  000

60  000

57  444

1997/1998

70  000

75  000

61  179

1998/1999

40  000

40  000

30  678

1999/2000

20  000

20  000

20  677

2000/2001

25  000

25  000

22  052

2001/2002

35  000

35  000

27  354

2002/2003

30  000

30  000

24  327

2003/2004

20  000

20  000

18  038

2004/2005

5  000

10  000

5  344

2005/2006

1  000

10  000

1  037

2006/2007

7  000

7  000

1  887

2007/2008

7  000

7  000

1  865

2008/2009

7  000

7  000

3  955

2009/2010

7  000

7  000

7  144

2010/20111)

7  000

2011/20121)

7  000

2012/20131)

5  000

2013/20141)

5  000

2014/2015

5  000

5  000

4  105

2015/2016

4  000

4  000

4  259

2016/2017

4  100

4  100

3  066

2017/2018

5  000

5  000

3  519

2018/2019

5  852

5  852

2  490

2019/2020

4  682

4  682

1  703

2020/2021

5  136

5  136

3  182

2021/2022

5  136

5  136

2  117

2022/2023

5  022

5  022

1  988

2023/2024

5  022

5  022

1  346

2024/2025

4  537

4  537

1  327

2025/2026

4  537

4  537

2026/2027

3  246

2027/2028

3  246

1) No limit on offshore shrimp landings

References and further reading

ICES. 2022. ICES technical guidance for harvest control rules and stock assessments for stocks in categories 2 and 3. In Report of ICES Advisory Committee, 2022. ICES Advice 2022, Section 16.4.11. (https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19801564).

MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Offshore northern shrimp. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 31 August 2026.