Blue whiting Micromesistius poutassou

Advice 2027

1 064 191

tonnes

Advice 2026

851 344

tonnes

Advice change

25 %

Publication of Advice: 30 September 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

ICES advises that when the long-term management strategy agreed by Norway, the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and UK is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 1064191 tonnes.

Stock development

Fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and Fpa; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.

Blue whiting. Total and Icelandic catches, recruitment at age 1, fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence interval.The catch estimate for 2026 is preliminary. The assumed recruitment value for 2026 is shaded in a lighter colour. The spawning stock biomass value for 2026 is calculated from the assessment and assumed recruitment for 2026.

Basis of assessement and reference points

Basis of the advice

Long-term management strategy

Management plan

A long-term management strategy was agreed by the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, and Norway, and subsequently by UK in 2021 (Anon 2021). ICES evaluated the strategy and found it to be precautionary (ICES 2016, 2017)

Assessment type

Age-based analytical assessment (SAM)

Input data

Commercial catches, preliminary estimate of catch-at-age in the year (Q1-Q2) in which the assessment is carried out. One survey index (International Blue Whiting Spawning Stock Survey [IBWSS; A1142] ages 1–8, 2004–2026, excluding 2010 and 2020). Time invariant maturity at age was estimated in 1994 by combining maturity ogives from the southern and northern areas. Weight at age estimated annually from commercial data, including preliminary estimates of weight-at-age in the year of the assessment (Q1-Q2). Time invariant natural mortality fixed at 0.2 for all ages, derived in the 1980s from age compositions before the targeted fishery started.

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY

MSY Btrigger

2 250 000

BPA

FMSY

0.32

Stochastic simulations with segmented regression stock–recruitment relationship capped to FP05

Precautionary approach

Blim

1 500 000

Approximately Bloss

BPA

2 250 000

Blim × exp(1.645 × s), s = 0.246

FPA

0.32

FP05; the F that leads to SSB ≥ Blim with 95% probability

Long-term management strategy

SSBmgt_lower

1 500 000

Blim

SSBmgt

2 250 000

BPA

Fmgt_lower

0.05

Arbitrary low F

Fmgt

0.32

FMSY

Prospects

Blue whiting. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.

Variable

Value

Notes

Fages  3–7 (2026)

0.4

From the assessment (based on assumed catch in 2026).

SSB (2027)

5 060 667

From the forecast for 2027; in tonnes.

Rage  1 (2026)

39 366 774

75th percentile of the geometric mean (1996–2025); in thousands.

Rage  1 (2027–2028)

22 790 977

Geometric mean (1996–2025); in thousands.

Total catch (2026)

1 110 513

As estimated by ICES, based on declared national quotas and expected uptake; in tonnes.

Blue whiting. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on annual catch scenarios. All weights are in tonnes.

Basis

Catch (2027)

Fishing mortality (2027)

SSB (2028)

% SSB change1)

% Change in catch2)

Advice change3)

Long-term management strategy: Catch2027 = advice2026 + 25%

1 064 191

0.30

5 585 532

10.4

-4.2

25

Long-term management strategy: F = Fmgt

1 112 531

0.32

5 540 154

9.5

0.2

31

F=F2026

1 351 452

0.40

5 316 586

5.1

22.0

59

1) SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2027

2) Advice value for 2027 relative to expected catch in 2026 (1 110 513 t)

3) Advice value for 2027 relative to advice value for 2026 (851 344 t)

The advice for 2027 is higher than in 2026 because of an estimated increase in stock biomass from 2026 to 2027, an upward revision of the perception of stock biomass over the recent years and a good incoming year class (2024). A cap of +25% was applied to the catch advice according to the long-term management plan.

Quality of the assessment

This year’s assessment shows a downward revision of the estimated fishing mortality and an upward revision of the estimated recruitment and stock biomass over recent years. These revisions are caused by a higher proportional catch of age 1 in 2025 in the final catch data (13%) compared to the preliminary catch data (5%). Additionally, the survey index (IBWSS) indicated a low recruitment in 2025 (year class 2024) but relatively high numbers for the same year class as age 2 in 2026. This contributed to the upward revision of the 2025 recruitment.

The survey index indicated a good recruitment for 2026 (2025 year class). The model used for the current assessment subsequently estimated recruitment in 2026 to be 24.7 billion, which is slightly higher than the long-term geometric mean (22.8 billion) but lower than the recruitment estimate for 2025 (38.7 billion). Other surveys that substantially correlate with the assessment model recruitment estimates and are currently not used in the assessment (International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas in May (A3675 [IESNS]), International Ecosystem Summer Survey in the Nordic Seas in July (A7806 [IESSNS])) point towards a higher recruitment in 2026 compared to 2025. It was therefore decided to replace the recruitment estimate of the assessment model for 2026 with the 75th percentile of the long-term geometric mean (39.4 billion), as done previously under similar circumstances for this stock (ICES, 2014).

Blue whiting. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2022–2025).

Other Information

Since 2018, the sum of the unilateral quotas, and the resulting catches, have consistently exceeded the ICES advice based on the long-term management strategy. The evaluation of the management strategy (ICES, 2016a) did not implement this consistent overshoot of the TAC prescribed by the management strategy.. Therefore, failing to adhere to the advised catches as derived from the application of the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) approach or the long-term management strategy may not be precautionary. Specifically, this may result in an increased risk for the stock to fall below Blim and loss of catch in the medium-to-long term.

Both the 2020 and 2021 year classes are among the highest in the time series and were fully recruited to the fishery in 2026. In 2027, the fishery will to some extent still depend on them, with 10% and 21% of the catch predicted to consist of fish from the 2020 and 2021 year classes, respectively. The highest year class recruited to the fishery will be from 2024 and is predicted to contribute with 23% of the catches in 2027. The history of the stock shows that subsequent years of low recruitment after a period of high recruitment may cause the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) to drop quickly to lower levels and would lead to a reduction in future advice. The year classes 2022 and 2023 are estimated by the assessment model to be small and the 2024 year class to be strong. Recruitment survey indices not used in the assessment but used as additional indicators indicate a stronger 2025 year class compared to 2022 and 2023 (Joint Norwegian-Russian survey Barents Sea (G5348), Icelandic bottom-trawl survey in spring (G3239 [IS-SMB])) or even stronger than 2024 (International Ecosystem Survey in the Nordic Seas in May (A3675 [IESNS]), International Ecosystem Summer Survey in the Nordic Seas in July (A7806 [IESSNS]), the Faroese bottom-trawl survey in spring (G1264 [FO-GFS-Q1])); though not as high as those from 2020 and 2021.

Advice, TAC and Catch

Blue whiting. Recommended TAC, national TAC and catches (tonnes).

Year

Recommended TAC

Iceland national TAC

Catches Iceland

Total national TAC

Total catch

1987

950 000

1988

832 000

1989

630 000

1990

600 000

1991

670 000

1992

1993

490 000

1994

485 000

650 000

1995

518 000

369

650 000

578 905

1996

500 000

501

650 000

645 982

1997

540 000

10 646

672 437

1998

650 000

68 681

1 128 969

1999

650 000

160 425

1 256 228

2000

800 000

260 938

1 412 927

2001

628 000

365 099

1 780 170

2002

0

282 000

286 430

1 556 792

2003

600 000

318 000

501 496

2 321 406

2004

925 000

713 000

422 078

2 380 161

2005

1 075 000

345 000

265 515

2 034 309

2006

1 500 000

352 600

314 768

2 100 000

1 976 176

2007

980 000

299 710

237 854

1 847 000

1 625 255

2008

835 000

202 836

163 793

1 250 000

1 260 615

2009

384 000

95 739

120 202

606 000

641 818

2010

540 000

87 625

87 908

548 000

526 357

2011

223 000

6 507

5 882

40 000

103 620

2012

391 000

63 447

63 056

391 000

384 021

2013

643 000

104 339

104 918

643 000

628 169

2014

948 950

194 722

182 879

1 200 000

1 155 279

2015

839 886

202 958

214 870

1 260 000

1 396 244

2016

776 391

163 570

186 914

1 147 000

1 183 187

2017

1 342 330

264 000

228 935

1 675 400

1 558 061

2018

1 387 872

275 971

292 952

1 727 964

1 711 477

2019

1 143 629

226 727

268 351

1 483 208

1 515 527

2020

1 161 615

230 111

243 725

1 478 358

1 495 248

2021

929 292

196 081

190 147

1 157 604

1 143 450

2022

752 736

174 557

191 813

752 736

1 038 736

2023

1 359 629

273 442

292 853

1 359 629

1 737 098

2024

1 529 754

309 524

321 572

1 529 754

1 816 792

2025

1 447 054

293 287

286 760

1 447 054

1 110 513

2026

851 344

186 157

851 344

2027

1 064 191

References and further reading

Anon 2021. Agreed record of conclusions of fisheries consultations between the European Union, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Norway and UK on the management of blue whiting in the north-east Atlantic in 2022. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/2ea04e97a8fd45c2b1758e2602e79c46/blue-whiting-agreed-record-october-2021.pdf

ICES. 2014. Blue whiting in Subareas I–IX, XII, and XIV. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 20214. ICES Advice 2014, Book 9, whb-comb. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.27202938

ICES. 2016. Report of the Workshop on Blue Whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) Long Term Management Strategy Evaluation (WKBWMS), 30 August 2016, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:53. 104 pp.

MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Blue whiting. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 30 september 2026.

ICES. 2026. Blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) in subareas 1–9, 12, and 14 (Northeast Atlantic and adjacent waters). In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2026. ICES Advice 2026, whb.27.1-91214, https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.30932450

ICES. 2026. Working Group on Widely Distributed Stocks (WGWIDE). ICES Scientific Reports. https://doi.org/10.17895/