Capelin Mallotus villosus
Publication of Advice: 12th June 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be no more than 358 044 tonnes.
Stock development
The spawning-stock size in 2026 is above Blim and the juvenile index is above Utrigger; no reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.
Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immature capelin (from autumn surveys), and SSB at spawning time (with 95% confidence intervals).
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Coastal states management plan |
Management plan | See HCR (Anon 2023, ICES 2023). |
Assessment type | Survey index based estimates. |
Input data for the initial advice | The abundance estimate of immature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the intermediate advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the final advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn and winter. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | Bmgt | 114 000 | Defined according to the agreed management plan (Anon 2023), in tonnes |
Utrigger | 50 | Defined according to the agreed management plan(ICES 2015), juvenile index, in billions | |
Cap | 127 | Defined according to the agreed management plan (ICES 2015), juvenile index, in billions | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 114 000 | Mean size of three lowest SSBs that produced average recruitment (in 1981,1982, and 1990), in tonnes (ICES 2023) |
Prospects
The Coastal States (Iceland, Greenland, and Norway), have agreed ((Anon, 2015; Anon, 2023) to use the following harvest control rule as the basis for management, following the rule developed and revised by ICES (ICES, 2015; ICES, 2023).
The objective of the Harvest Control Rule is to set a final TAC which ensures, with a 95% probability, that a minimum of 114,000t (Blim) remains for spawning. This is achieved by a series of acoustic surveys from September - February and the TAC is determined in three stages; an initial TAC, an intermediate TAC and a final TAC.
The initial TAC for the next fishing season is set based on estimates of the immature part of the stock following an acoustic survey in autumn (September - October).
Two fixed points are defined:
Utrigger = 50 billion immature capelin.
TACMax = 400,000 tonnes for U > 127 billion immature capelin.
The method for setting the initial/preliminary TAC is:
TAC = 0 if Uimm < 50 billion.
TAC = 5.211702 x (Uimm - Utrigger) thous. tonnes for Uimm in the range 50–127 billion.
TAC = 400,000 tonnes if Uimm > 127 billion.
The intermediate TAC for the current fishing season is set following the acoustic survey in autumn. Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass (SSB) with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The intermediate TAC is set at 2/3 of the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05.
The final TAC is set following an acoustic survey in winter (January-February). Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. Final TAC is set based on all acoustic surveys on the mature part of the stock from autumn to winter. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The final TAC is set at the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05. After ICES (2023), it was decided that the autumn survey is weighted a maximum of 1/3.
Capelin. Inputs to the harvest control rule.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Juvenile index age 1 (2024 year class) | 113.3 | Index from the autumn 2025 acoustic survey; in billions |
Juvenile index age 2 (2023 year class) | 4.9 | Index from the autumn 2025 acoustic survey; in billions |
Juvenile index age 3 (2022 year class) | 0.5 | Index from the autumn 2025 acoustic survey; in billions |
Total Juvenile index | 118.7 | Index from the autumn acoustic survey; in billions |
Capelin. Projection based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2026/2027) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|
Management plan | 358 044 | 81 |
2) Advice value for 2026/2027(2) relative to advice value for 2026/2025 (1) (197474 t) | ||
The initial advice for 2026/2027 is above zero catch because the index of immature fish is above Utrigger.
Quality of the Assessment
The 2025 autumn survey spatial coverage encompassed the stock’s entire distribution area, yielding a low coefficient of variation (CV=0.11) for the immature estimate.
Other information
ICES is only requested to provide initial catch advice using a rule based on a low probability that the advised catch for the initial TAC will be higher that the final TAC (ICES, 2015). The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) is expected to provide updated catch advice following an acoustic survey in September 2026 (intermediate advice) and surveys in January–February 2027; which will form the basis for the final TAC for 2026/2027.
The period for the fishing season was changed in 2021 by the Coastal States from the period 20 June- 15 April to the period 15 October- 15 April.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Capelin. History of advice: Initial TAC, Recommended final TAC from MFRI, agreed final TAC, and catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Fishing year | Initial TAC | Rec. final TAC | Final TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1986/1987 | 1 100 000 | 1 333 400 | 1 290 000 | 1 334 000 |
1987/1988 | 500 000 | 1 115 800 | 1 115 000 | 1 117 000 |
1988/1989 | 900 000 | 1 036 500 | 1 065 000 | 1 036 000 |
1989/1990 | 900 000 | 807 800 | 900 000 | 808 000 |
1990/1991 | 600 000 | 313 600 | 250 000 | 313 000 |
1991/1992 | 0 | 677 100 | 740 000 | 677 000 |
1992/1993 | 500 000 | 787 700 | 900 000 | 788 000 |
1993/1994 | 900 000 | 1 178 700 | 1 250 000 | 1 179 000 |
1994/1995 | 950 000 | 863 900 | 850 000 | 864 000 |
1995/1996 | 800 000 | 929 300 | 1 390 000 | 926 000 |
1996/1997 | 1 100 000 | 1 570 900 | 1 600 000 | 1 569 000 |
1997/1998 | 850 000 | 1 244 900 | 1 265 000 | 1 245 000 |
1998/1999 | 950 000 | 1 099 400 | 1 200 000 | 1 100 000 |
1999/2000 | 866 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 931 000 |
2000/2001 | 650 000 | 1 110 000 | 1 090 000 | 1 070 000 |
2001/2002 | 700 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 249 000 |
2002/2003 | 690 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 989 000 |
2003/2004 | 555 000 | 875 000 | 900 000 | 743 000 |
2004/2005 | 335 000 | 985 000 | 985 000 | 784 000 |
2005/2006 | 0 | 238 000 | 235 000 | 247 000 |
2006/2007 | 0 | 385 000 | 385 000 | 377 000 |
2007/2008 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 203 000 |
2008/2009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 000 |
2009/2010 | 0 | 150 000 | 150 000 | 151 000 |
2010/2011 | 0 | 390 000 | 390 000 | 391 000 |
2011/2012 | 366 000 | 765 000 | 765 000 | 748 000 |
2012/2013 | 0 | 570 000 | 570 000 | 551 000 |
2013/2014 | 0 | 160 000 | 160 000 | 142 000 |
2014/2015 | 225 000 | 580 000 | 580 000 | 517 000 |
2015/2016 | 53 600 | 173 000 | 173 000 | 173 500 |
2016/2017 | 0 | 299 000 | 299 000 | 297 732 |
2017/2018 | 0 | 285 000 | 285 000 | 287 000 |
2018/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020/2021 | 169 520 | 127 300 | 127 300 | 128 647 |
2021/2022 | 400 000 | 869 600 | 869 600 | 689 200 |
2022/2023 | 400 000 | 459 800 | 459 800 | 330 051 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024/2025 | 0 | 8 589 | 8 589 | 9 439 |
2025/2026 | 46 384 | 197 474 | 197 474 | 190 086 |
2026/2027 | 358 044 |
References and further reading
Anon. 2015. Agreed Record of Conclusions of Coastal State consultations on the management of the capelin stock in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area. 2015. Reykjavík, Iceland. 7–8 May 2015. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/37b66bdf33d84e99924bb27553641719/samledokument-lodde-mai-2015---agreed-records---bilateral-avtale.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
Anon. 2023. Framework arrangement between Greenland and Iceland on the conservation and management of capelin. Reykjávik, Iceland 3 July 2023. 4 pp. https://www.althingi.is/altext/pdf/154/fylgiskjol/s1655-f_I.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop of Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Copenhangen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 335 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295
ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388
MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 12 June 2026.