Capelin Mallotus villosus
Publication of Advice: 10. October 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 43 766 tonnes.
Stock development
The spawning-stock size in 2026 is above Blim; no reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.
Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immatures from autumn surveys, and SSB at spawning time (with 90% confidence).
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Coastal states management plan |
Management plan | See listing of HCR below |
Assessment type | Survey index based estimates. |
Input data for the initial advice | The abundance estimate of immature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the intermediate advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn. |
Input data for the final advice | The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in winter. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | Bmgt | 114 000 | Defined according to the agreed management plan (ICES 2023b), in tonnes |
Utrigger | 50 | Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions | |
Cap | 127 | Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 114 000 | Mean size of three small SSBs that produced average recruitment (ICES 2023a) |
Prospects
The Coastal States (Iceland, Greenland, and Norway), have agreed (Anon, 2015; Anon, 2023) to use the following harvest control rule as the basis for management, following the rule developed and revised by ICES (ICES, 2015; ICES, 2023).
The objective of the Harvest Control Rule is to set a final TAC which ensures, with a 95% probability, that a minimum of 114,000 t (Blim) remains for spawning. This is achieved by a series of acoustic surveys from September - February and the TAC is determined in three stages; an initial TAC, an intermediate TAC and a final TAC.
The initial TAC for the next fishing season is set based on estimates of the immature part of the stock following an acoustic survey in autumn (September - October).
Two fixed points are defined:
Utrigger = 50 billion immature capelin.
TACMax = 400,000 tonnes for U > 127 billion immature capelin.
The method for setting the initial/preliminary TAC is:
TAC = 0 if Uimm < 50 billion.
TAC = 5.2 x (Uimm - Utrigger) thous. tonnes for Uimm in the range 50–127 billion.
TAC = 400,000 tonnes if Uimm > 127 billion.
The intermediate TAC for the current fishing season is set following the acoustic survey in autumn. Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass (SSB) with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The intermediate TAC is set at 2/3 of the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05.
The final TAC is set following an acoustic survey in winter (January-February). Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. Final TAC is set based on all acoustic surveys on the mature part of the stock from autumn to winter. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The final TAC is set at the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05.
Capelin. Inputs to the harvest control rule.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2025/2026) prior to survey | No initial TAC adviced | |
Harvestable biomass (2026) | 408 314 | Stock size according to the autumn survey, in tonnes |
Cod stock size (2026) | 783 106 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Haddock stock size (2026) | 260 989 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Saithe stock size (2026) | 298 002 | Input to the predation model, in tonnes |
Capelin. Projection based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | SSB (2026)1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 43 766 | 230 861 | -6 |
1) SSB on March 15th 2026 | |||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026(2) relative to advice value for 2025/2026 (1) (46384 t) | |||
The results of the acoustic measurements in September 2025 on biomass of the mature part of the stock and accounting for the results of the predation model indicates that the goal of the harvest control rule is met with the proposed catch of leaving at least 114 000 t for spawning with a 95% probability is reached with catch of 65 650 tonnes. The intermediate TAC is 2/3 of that catch, or 43 766 tonnes. The intermediate advice for 2025/2026 is above zero catch because the spawning-stock size in 2026 is above Blim.
Quality of the Assessment
The spatial coverage of the autumn survey in 2025 is considered to have covered the distribution area of the stock. The survey had a low coefficient of variation (CV=0.2) for the mature stock estimate. There is some uncertainty regarding the distribution of immature capelin in the autumn survey due to the lack of calibration of the 18kHz on the r/v Tarajoq making it difficult to separate immature capelin from 0-group. However, this uncertainty does not affect the assessment results.
Other information
ICES is only requested to provide initial catch advice using a rule based on a low probability that the advised catch for the initial TAC will be higher than the final TAC (ICES, 2015). The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) is expected to provide updated catch advice following an acoustic surveys in January–February 2026; which will form the basis for the final TAC for 2025/2026.
The period for the fishing season was changed in 2021 by the Coastal States from the period 20 June- 15 April to the period 15 October- 15 April.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Capelin. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches.
Fishing year | Rec. initial TAC | Rec. final TAC | Final TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1986/1987 | 1 100 000 | 1 290 000 | 1 334 000 | |
1987/1988 | 500 000 | 1 115 000 | 1 117 000 | |
1988/1989 | 900 000 | 1 065 000 | 1 036 000 | |
1989/1990 | 900 000 | 900 000 | 808 000 | |
1990/1991 | 600 000 | 250 000 | 313 000 | |
1991/1992 | 0 | 740 000 | 677 000 | |
1992/1993 | 500 000 | 900 000 | 788 000 | |
1993/1994 | 900 000 | 1 250 000 | 1 179 000 | |
1994/1995 | 950 000 | 850 000 | 864 000 | |
1995/1996 | 800 000 | 1 390 000 | 926 000 | |
1996/1997 | 1 100 000 | 1 600 000 | 1 569 000 | |
1997/1998 | 850 000 | 1 265 000 | 1 245 000 | |
1998/1999 | 950 000 | 1 200 000 | 1 100 000 | |
1999/2000 | 866 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 931 000 |
2000/2001 | 650 000 | 1 110 000 | 1 090 000 | 1 070 000 |
2001/2002 | 700 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 300 000 | 1 249 000 |
2002/2003 | 690 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 989 000 |
2003/2004 | 555 000 | 875 000 | 900 000 | 743 000 |
2004/2005 | 335 000 | 985 000 | 985 000 | 784 000 |
2005/2006 | 0 | 238 000 | 235 000 | 247 000 |
2006/2007 | 0 | 385 000 | 385 000 | 377 000 |
2007/2008 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 207 000 | 203 000 |
2008/2009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 000 |
2009/2010 | 0 | 150 000 | 150 000 | 151 000 |
2010/2011 | 0 | 390 000 | 390 000 | 391 000 |
2011/2012 | 366 000 | 765 000 | 765 000 | 748 000 |
2012/2013 | 0 | 570 000 | 570 000 | 551 000 |
2013/2014 | 0 | 160 000 | 160 000 | 142 000 |
2014/2015 | 225 000 | 580 000 | 580 000 | 517 000 |
2015/2016 | 53 600 | 173 000 | 173 000 | 173 500 |
2016/2017 | 0 | 299 000 | 299 000 | 297 732 |
2017/2018 | 0 | 285 000 | 285 000 | 287 000 |
2018/2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2019/2020 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2020/2021 | 169 520 | 127 300 | 127 300 | 128 647 |
2021/2022 | 400 000 | 869 600 | 869 600 | 689 200 |
2022/2023 | 400 000 | 459 800 | 459 800 | 330 051 |
2023/2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024/2025 | 0 | 8 589 | 8 589 | 9 439 |
2025/2026 | 46 384 |
References and further reading
Anon. 2015. Agreed Record of Conclusions of Coastal State consultations on the management of the capelin stock in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area. 2015. Reykjavík, Iceland. 7–8 May 2015. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/37b66bdf33d84e99924bb27553641719/samledokument-lodde-mai-2015---agreed-records---bilateral-avtale.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
Anon. 2023. Framework arrangement between Greenland and Iceland on the conservation and management of capelin. Reykjávik, Iceland 3 July 2023. 4 pp. https://www.althingi.is/altext/pdf/154/fylgiskjol/s1655-f_I.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.
ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop of Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Copenhangen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 335 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295
ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.