Capelin Mallotus villosus

[1] 46384

Advice 2025/2026

46 384

tonnes

Advice 2024/2025

8 589

tonnes

Advice change

440 %

Note: This initial advice will be updated in the autumn

Publication of Advice: 6. June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

MFRI and ICES advise that when the agreed management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 46 384 tonnes.

Stock development

The spawning-stock size in 2025 is above Blim and the juvenile index is above Utrigger; no reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

Capelin. Catches, acoustic index for immatures from autumn surveys, and SSB at spawning time (with 95% confidence).

Basis of the assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice

Coastal states management plan

Management plan

See listing of HCR below

Assessment type

Survey index based estimates.

Input data for the initial advice

The abundance estimate of immature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn.

Input data for the intermediate advice

The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in autumn.

Input data for the final advice

The abundance estimate of mature capelin from acoustic surveys in winter.

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

Management plan

Bmgt

114 000

Defined according to the agreed management plan (ICES 2023b), in tonnes

Utrigger

50

Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions

Cap

127

Defined to ensure a low probability that the initial TAC exceeds the final TAC (ICES 2015), in billions

Precautionary approach

Blim

114 000

Mean size of three small SSBs that produced average recruitment (ICES 2023a)

Prospects

The Coastal States (Iceland, Greenland, and Norway), have agreed ((Anon, 2015; Anon, 2023) to use the following harvest control rule as the basis for management, following the rule developed and revised by ICES (ICES, 2015; ICES, 2023).

The objective of the Harvest Control Rule is to set a final TAC which ensures, with a 95% probability, that a minimum of 114,000t (Blim) remains for spawning. This is achieved by a series of acoustic surveys from September - February and the TAC is determined in three stages; an initial TAC, an intermediate TAC and a final TAC.

  1. The initial TAC for the next fishing season is set based on estimates of the immature part of the stock following an acoustic survey in autumn (September - October).

    Two fixed points are defined:

    1. Utrigger = 50 billion immature capelin.

    2. TACMax = 400,000 tonnes for U > 127 billion immature capelin.

    The method for setting the initial/preliminary TAC is:

    • TAC = 0 if Uimm < 50 billion.

    • TAC = 5.2 x (Uimm - Utrigger) thous. tonnes for Uimm in the range 50–127 billion.

    • TAC = 400,000 tonnes if Uimm > 127 billion.

  2. The intermediate TAC for the current fishing season is set following the acoustic survey in autumn. Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass (SSB) with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The intermediate TAC is set at 2/3 of the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05.

  3. The final TAC is set following an acoustic survey in winter (January-February). Estimates on capelin spawning stock biomass with uncertainty estimate are combined with data on predicted predator stocks size and distribution. Final TAC is set based on all acoustic surveys on the mature part of the stock from autumn to winter. The estimates are fed into a predation model run with varying catches until spawning in March. The final TAC is set at the catch giving p(SSB < Blim = 114,000 tonnes) < 0.05.

Capelin. Inputs to the harvest control rule.

Variable

Value

Notes

Juvenile index age 1 (2023 year class)

57

Index from the autumn 2024 acoustic survey; in billions

Juvenile index age 2 (2022 year class)

1.7

Index from the autumn 2024 acoustic survey; in billions

Juvenile index age 3 (2021 year class)

0.13

Index from the autumn 2024 acoustic survey; in billions

Total Juvenile index

58.9

Index from the autumn acoustic survey; in billions

Capelin. Projection based on adopted harvest control rule.

Basis

Catch (2025/2026)

Advice change2)

Management plan

46 384

440

2) Advice value for 2026/2025 relative to advice value for 2025/2024 (8589 t)

The initial advice for 2025/2026 is above zero catch because the index of immature fish is above Utrigger.

Quality of the Assessment

The spatial coverage of the autumn survey in 2024 is considered adequate to provide a reliable estimate of the immature capelin.

Other information

ICES is only requested to provide initial catch advice using a rule based on a low probability that the advised catch for the initial TAC will be higher that the final TAC (ICES, 2015). The Marine and Freshwater Research Institute (MFRI) is expected to provide updated catch advice following an acoustic survey in September 2025 (intermediate advice) and surveys in January–February 2026; which will form the basis for the final TAC for 2025/2026.

The period for the fishing season was changed in 2021 by the Coastal States from the period 20 June- 15 April to the period 15 October- 15 April.

Advice, TAC and Catch

Capelin. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches.

Fishing year

Rec. initial TAC

Rec. final TAC

Final TAC

Total catch

1986/1987

1  100  000

1  290  000

1  334  000

1987/1988

500  000

1  115  000

1  117  000

1988/1989

900  000

1  065  000

1  036  000

1989/1990

900  000

900  000

808  000

1990/1991

600  000

250  000

313  000

1991/1992

0

740  000

677  000

1992/1993

500  000

900  000

788  000

1993/1994

900  000

1  250  000

1  179  000

1994/1995

950  000

850  000

864  000

1995/1996

800  000

1  390  000

926  000

1996/1997

1  100  000

1  600  000

1  569  000

1997/1998

850  000

1  265  000

1  245  000

1998/1999

950  000

1  200  000

1  100  000

1999/2000

866  000

1  000  000

1  000  000

931  000

2000/2001

650  000

1  110  000

1  090  000

1  070  000

2001/2002

700  000

1  300  000

1  300  000

1  249  000

2002/2003

690  000

1  000  000

1  000  000

989  000

2003/2004

555  000

875  000

900  000

743  000

2004/2005

335  000

985  000

985  000

784  000

2005/2006

0

238  000

235  000

247  000

2006/2007

0

385  000

385  000

377  000

2007/2008

207  000

207  000

207  000

203  000

2008/2009

0

0

0

15  000

2009/2010

0

150  000

150  000

151  000

2010/2011

0

390  000

390  000

391  000

2011/2012

366  000

765  000

765  000

748  000

2012/2013

0

570  000

570  000

551  000

2013/2014

0

160  000

160  000

142  000

2014/2015

225  000

580  000

580  000

517  000

2015/2016

53  600

173  000

173  000

173  500

2016/2017

0

299  000

299  000

297  732

2017/2018

0

285  000

285  000

287  000

2018/2019

0

0

0

0

2019/2020

0

0

0

0

2020/2021

169  520

127  300

127  300

128  647

2021/2022

400  000

869  600

869  600

689  200

2022/2023

400  000

459  800

459  800

330  051

2023/2024

0

0

0

0

2024/2025

0

8  589

8  589

9  439

2025/2026

46  384

References and further reading

Anon. 2015. Agreed Record of Conclusions of Coastal State consultations on the management of the capelin stock in the Iceland–East Greenland–Jan Mayen area. 2015. Reykjavík, Iceland. 7–8 May 2015. https://www.regjeringen.no/contentassets/37b66bdf33d84e99924bb27553641719/samledokument-lodde-mai-2015---agreed-records---bilateral-avtale.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.

Anon. 2023. Framework arrangement between Greenland and Iceland on the conservation and management of capelin. Reykjávik, Iceland 3 July 2023. 4 pp. https://www.althingi.is/altext/pdf/154/fylgiskjol/s1655-f_I.pdf Last accessed: 31 May 2025.

ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop of Icelandic Stocks (WKICE), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Copenhangen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 335 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295

ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388

MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Capelin. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.