HERRING Clupea harengus
Publication of Advice: June 12th 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 80 307 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is above HRMGT but below HRpa and HRMSY. Spawning stock size is above Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.
Herring. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate based on reference stock biomass (B4+). All biomass reference points refer to SSB levels.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as 19 % of reference biomass (biomass of 4+) |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices from accoustic surveys |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY | MSY Btrigger | 234 000 | Bpa |
HRMSY | 0.22 | Stochastic simulations. | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 273 000 | From the Management plan |
HRMGT | 0.19 | From the Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 200 000 | Estimated from stock recruitment relationship |
Bpa | 273 000 | Bpa = Blim × exp(1.645 × σ), σ = 0.19 | |
HRpa | 0.25 | Harvest rate leading to P (SSB > Blim) > 95% with MSY Btrigger |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries management plan was implemented in 2024. The rule was evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2024) and is considered to be precautionary and to conform to ICES MSY approach. According to the rule, the TAC for the calendar year is calculated as follows:
\[ TAC_Y = HR_{MGT} \times B_{4+,Y} \quad \text{if } SSB_Y \geq{MGT}\;B_{trigger} \]
\[ TAC_Y = HR_{MGT} \times \left(\frac{SSB_Y}{{MGT}\;B_{trigger}}\right) \times B_{4+,Y} \quad \text{if } SSB_Y < {MGT}\;B_{trigger} \]
The spawning-stock biomass trigger (MGT Btrigger) is defined as 273 000 tonnes; B4+ is defined as the biomass of herring of ages 4 and older, and the target harvest rate (HRMGT) is set to 0.19. In 2025, the Icelandic authorities changed the fishing year for this stock to a calendar year (previously 1 September of year Y to 31 August of year Y+1).
Herring. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2025) | 104 591 | Reported catch from June 2025 to the end of April 2026; tonnes. |
HR (2025) | 0.21 | Harvest rate based on catch constraint |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 894 213 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
B4+ (2026) | 422 668 | From the assessment (1. January 2026); tonnes |
SSB (2026) | 409 080 | Predicted (1 July 2026) after accounting for Ichthyophonus infection in 2025; in tonnes |
Herring. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2026) | Harvest rate (2026) | SSB (2027)1) | Reference biomass 4+ (2027) | % SSB change2) | Advice change3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 80 307 | 0.19 | 423 579 | 439 380 | 3.5 | -22.31 |
1) SSB on 1 July 2027 | ||||||
2) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | ||||||
3) Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025/2026 (103367) | ||||||
The advice has decreased because of a downward revision and a reduction in the reference biomass (B4+) caused by weaker cohorts entering the fishery.
Quality of the Assessment
This year’s assessment is consistent with the previous year’s assessment. Issues with the acoustic surveys in 2024-2025 resulted in increased uncertainty around the population estimates.
Herring. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2022–2025). The reference points and assessment were revised in 2024, and only assessment results from the last two years should be compared to the reference points indicated.
Other information
Previously this advice was given for the Icelandic fishing year (1st September – 31st August). Following the change in regulations issued by the Ministry of Industries, this year the advice is for the calendar year of 2026 (Government of Iceland, 2026). This change better reflects the fishing practices and has no effect on the provision of advice.
Ichthyophonus infection still persists in the stock but at lower prevalence than previously (i.e. during 2009-2012 and 2016-2020). This impact is incorporated in both the assessment and the management plan.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Herring. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes). Catches represents sum of the winter catches and the summer catches in the preceding fishing year.
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 50 000 | 50 000 | |
1985 | 50 000 | 50 000 | |
1986 | 65 000 | 65 000 | |
1987 | 70 000 | 72 900 | |
1988 | 100 000 | 90 000 | |
1989 | 95 000 | 90 000 | |
1990/1991 | 90 000 | 100 000 | |
1991/1992 | 79 000 | 110 000 | |
1992/1993 | 86 000 | 110 000 | 16 047 |
1993/1994 | 110 000 | 110 000 | 103 524 |
1994/1995 | 83 000 | 130 000 | 132 774 |
1995/1996 | 120 000 | 110 000 | 125 341 |
1996/1997 | 97 000 | 110 000 | 95 994 |
1997/1998 | 90 000 | 100 000 | 64 464 |
1998/1999 | 90 000 | 90 000 | 87 203 |
1999/2000 | 100 000 | 100 000 | 93 323 |
2000/2001 | 110 000 | 110 000 | 101 031 |
2001/2002 | 125 000 | 125 000 | 97 572 |
2002/2003 | 113 000 | 105 000 | 96 128 |
2003/2004 | 113 000 | 110 000 | 125 719 |
2004/2005 | 106 000 | 110 000 | 114 237 |
2005/2006 | 110 000 | 110 000 | 103 032 |
2006/2007 | 110 000 | 130 000 | 135 313 |
2007/2008 | 117 000 | 150 000 | 160 744 |
2008/2009 | 131 000 | 130 000 | 153 238 |
2009/2010 | 75 000 | 40 000 | 48 442 |
2010/2011 | 40 000 | 40 000 | 44 735 |
2011/2012 | 40 000 | 45 000 | 49 756 |
2012/2013 | 67 000 | 68 500 | 74 503 |
2013/2014 | 87 000 | 87 000 | 73 521 |
2014/2015 | 83 000 | 83 000 | 93 209 |
2015/2016 | 71 000 | 71 000 | 69 839 |
2016/2017 | 63 000 | 63 000 | 61 161 |
2017/2018 | 38 712 | 39 000 | 36 005 |
2018/2019 | 35 186 | 35 186 | 40 968 |
2019/2020 | 34 572 | 34 572 | 32 536 |
2020/2021 | 35 490 | 35 490 | 28 301 |
2021/2022 | 72 239 | 72 239 | 70 805 |
2022/2023 | 66 195 | 66 195 | 79 202 |
2023/2024 | 92 633 | 92 633 | 87 194 |
2024/2025 | 81 367 | 81 367 | 84 055 |
2025/2026 | 103 367 | 103 367 | |
2026 | 80 307 |
References and further reading
Government of Iceland. (2026). Management strategy and harvest control rules. Retrieved May 29, 2026, from https://www.government.is/topics/business-and-industry/fisheries-in-iceland/management-strategy-and-harvest-control-rules/
MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Herring. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 12 June 2026.