COD Gadus morhua
Publication of Advice: 12th June 2026. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2026/2027 should be no more than 201 674 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is at HRMGT, and below HRMSY and HRpa; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Cod. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate, reference stock biomass (B4+) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as the average of last year’s TAC and 20% of reference biomass |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 265 000 | The fifth percentile on the distribution of SSB when the TAC is based on HRMGT |
HRMSY | 0.22 | Stochastic HCR evaluation. Percentage of Bage 4+ | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 220 000 | Management plan |
HRMGT | 0.2 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 125 000 | Bloss |
Bpa | 160 000 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.15 | |
HRpa | 0.39 | HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has a fisheries management plan for Icelandic cod. The plan, which aims at providing maximum sustainable yield, was re-evaluated by ICES and found to be consistent with both the precautionary principle and ICES MSY approach (ICES, 2021). According to the management plan, the TAC for the fishing year Y/Y+1 (01 September of year Y to 31 August of year Y+1) is calculated as follows:
\[ \text{TAC}_{Y/Y+1} = \frac{\text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{\text{trigger}}},1\right) \text{HR}_{\text{MGT}}B_{4+,y} + \text{TAC}_{Y-1/Y}}{2} \]
where B4+,y is the biomass of cod aged 4 and older in year y and MGT Btrigger = 220 000 tonnes.
The expected range of the realized harvest rate (HR) when following the management plan (HRMGT) is between 0.15 and 0.27 (ICES, 2021).
Cod. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Reference biomass (2027) | 1 001 790 | Short term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2027) | 133 469 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Harvest rate (2026) | 0.2 | Annual HR, based on estimated catch in 2026. |
SSB (2027) | 370 011 | Short term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 3 (2028) | 115 513 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Catch (2026) | 202 367 | Estimated catch until the end of the fishing year (31 August 2026) and estimated catch in the first four months of the next fishing year (1 September–31 December 2026); tonnes |
Cod. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2026/2027) | Harvest rate (2026/2027) | SSB (2028) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 201 674 | 0.2 | 362 203 | -2 | -1 |
1) SSB in 2028 relative to SSB in 2027 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2026/2027 relative to advice value for 2025/2026 (203822 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
This year’s assessment is in line with previous assessments.
Cod. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2022–2025).
Other information
Stock and catch weights-at-ages have been lower than the long-term average for most ages over the past three years, especially in the age classes that currently dominate the reference biomass. As capelin is known to be a major prey source for cod in Icelandic waters (Pálsson and Björnsson, 2011) and capelin stock levels have been linked to cod growth (Frater et al., 2019), the reduction in cod weights is likely linked to low levels of capelin (cap.27.2a514) in Icelandic waters in recent years.
Recent and historical patterns of common cohort strength shared between this stock and the East Greenland–Iceland offshore spawning cod stock (cod.21.27.1.14; ICES, 2026) suggest linkages in productivity and periodic migrations. These linkages have not been quantified but may affect assumptions of stock boundaries, stock productivity, and sustainable fishing rates.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Cod. Recommended TAC according to management plan, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 200 000 | 242 000 | 281 696 | 2 387 | 281 696 |
1985 | 200 000 | 263 000 | 322 750 | 2 457 | 322 750 |
1986 | 300 000 | 300 000 | 365 909 | 2 781 | 365 909 |
1987 | 300 000 | 330 000 | 389 936 | 2 449 | 389 936 |
1988 | 300 000 | 350 000 | 375 908 | 2 335 | 375 908 |
1989 | 300 000 | 325 000 | 354 195 | 2 324 | 354 195 |
1990 | 250 000 | 300 000 | 333 870 | 2 042 | 333 870 |
1991 | 240 000 | 245 000 | 243 369 | 1 871 | 243 369 |
1991/1992 | 250 000 | 265 000 | 272 172 | 1 105 | 272 172 |
1992/1993 | 154 000 | 205 000 | 297 487 | 7 357 | 301 812 |
1993/1994 | 150 000 | 165 000 | 196 929 | 12 431 | 209 712 |
1994/1995 | 130 000 | 155 000 | 164 113 | 7 076 | 168 441 |
1995/1996 | 155 0002) | 155 000 | 169 673 | 6 495 | 179 080 |
1996/1997 | 186 0002) | 186 000 | 203 915 | 2 716 | 205 661 |
1997/1998 | 218 0002) | 218 000 | 227 800 | 1 238 | 228 401 |
1998/1999 | 250 0002) | 250 000 | 254 729 | 1 477 | 254 942 |
1999/2000 | 247 0002) | 250 000 | 255 692 | 132 | 255 724 |
2000/2001 | 203 0002) | 220 000 | 221 740 | 1 267 | 221 792 |
2001/2002 | 190 0002) | 190 000 | 216 864 | 1 330 | 216 907 |
2002/2003 | 179 0002) | 179 000 | 196 652 | 2 434 | 196 678 |
2003/2004 | 209 0002) | 209 000 | 219 389 | 3 480 | 219 395 |
2004/2005 | 205 0002) | 205 000 | 209 333 | 3 019 | 209 457 |
2005/2006 | 198 000 | 198 000 | 201 839 | 1 807 | 201 857 |
2006/2007 | 178 000 | 193 000 | 186 762 | 1 847 | 186 762 |
2007/2008 | 130 0003) | 130 000 | 138 702 | 2 080 | 139 125 |
2008/2009 | 124 0003) | 160 000 | 168 515 | 1 383 | 168 515 |
2009/2010 | 150 0003) | 155 000 | 167 467 | 1 456 | 167 467 |
2010/2011 | 160 0003) | 160 000 | 164 719 | 1 426 | 164 734 |
2011/2012 | 177 0003) | 177 000 | 182 486 | 1 428 | 182 494 |
2012/2013 | 196 0003) | 195 000 | 210 361 | 1 543 | 210 510 |
2013/2014 | 215 0003) | 214 000 | 223 964 | 1 475 | 225 088 |
2014/2015 | 218 0003) | 218 000 | 221 061 | 1 544 | 222 605 |
2015/2016 | 239 0003) | 239 000 | 249 934 | 1 951 | 251 885 |
2016/2017 | 244 0003) | 244 000 | 234 649 | 2 605 | 237 254 |
2017/2018 | 257 5723) | 257 572 | 267 135 | 2 612 | 269 747 |
2018/2019 | 264 4373) | 264 437 | 262 888 | 2 013 | 264 901 |
2019/2020 | 272 4113) | 272 411 | 269 328 | 2 044 | 271 372 |
2020/2021 | 256 5933) | 256 593 | 269 423 | 2 365 | 271 788 |
2021/2022 | 222 3733) | 222 373 | 235 685 | 2 620 | 238 305 |
2022/2023 | 208 8463) | 208 846 | 218 176 | 2 359 | 220 535 |
2023/2024 | 211 3093) | 211 309 | 218 778 | 2 486 | 221 264 |
2024/2025 | 213 2143) | 213 214 | 223 087 | 2 408 | 225 495 |
2025/2026 | 203 8223) | 203 822 | |||
2026/2027 | 201 6743) | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year | |||||
2) 25 % harvest control rule | |||||
3) 20 % harvest control rule | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2021. Workshop on the re-evaluation of management plan for the Icelandic cod stock (WKICE-COD). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:30. 85 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7987
ICES. 2026. Northwestern Working Group (NWWG). ICES Scientific Reports.
MFRI Assessment Reports 2026. Cod. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 12 June 2026.
Pálsson ÓK, Björnsson H. 2011. Long-term changes in trophic patterns of Iceland cod and linkages to main prey stock sizes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68(7), 1488–1499. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr057
Frater, P. N., Hrafnkelsson, B., Elvarsson, B. T., & Stefansson, G. 2019. Drivers of growth for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in Icelandic waters–A Bayesian approach to determine spatiotemporal variation and its causes. Journal of Fish Biology, 95(2), 401-410.