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ATLANTIC WOLFFISH Anarhichas lupus
Publication of Advice: 6 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 9 412 tonnes. In addition, the MFRI recommends a continued closure of the spawning area west of Iceland during the spawning and incubation season in autumn and winter.
Stock development
Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY, Fpa, FMGT and Flim. Spawning-stock is above MGT Btrigger , Bpa and Blim.
Atlantic wolffish. Catch by gear type, recruitment (age 4), fishing mortality (ages 10–15), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
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Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMGT = 0.2 applied to ages 10–15 modified by the ratio SSBy/MGT Btrigger when SSBy < MGT Btrigger |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated survey indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMGT = 0.2 applied to ages 10–15 modified by the ratio SSBy/MGT Btrigger when SSBy < MGT Btrigger |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated survey indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
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Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 21 000 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.2 | Limited by fpa, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5 % | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 21 000 | Management plan |
FMGT | 0.2 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 18 500 | Blim x e1.645 * σB where σB=0.07 |
Bpa | 21 000 | Bloss (SSB in 2002) | |
Fpa | 0.2 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5% |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 21 000 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.2 | Limited by fpa, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5 % | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 21 000 | Management plan |
FMGT | 0.2 | Management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 18 500 | Blim x e1.645 * σB where σB=0.07 |
Bpa | 21 000 | Bloss (SSB in 2002) | |
Flim | 0.33 | Fishing mortality that in stochastic equilibrium will result in median SSB at Blim | |
Fpa | 0.2 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5% |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has a fisheries management plan for Icelandic wolffish which was evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2022). It is considered to be precautionary and conforms to ICES MSY approach. According to the management plan, FY/Y+1, i.e. the advice fishing mortality that is applied from 1 September in year Y to 31 August in year Y+1, is calculated from the harvest control rule (HCR) as:
\[ \text{F}_{Y⁄Y+1}=\text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{trigger}} ,1\right) \text{F}_{mgt} \]
To calculate the catch in the last four months of the year Y (September through December), the following F is used in the year Y:
\[ \text{F}_Y=\frac{2}{3}\text{F}_{SQ} + \frac{1}{3}\text{F}_{mgt} \]
In year Y+1, F(Y⁄Y+1) is used. Finally, the catch advice for the year Y/Y+1 is calculated using the following formula:
\[ C_{Y⁄Y+1}=\frac{1}{3}C[\text{F}_Y]+ \frac{2}{3} C[\text{F}_{Y/Y+1}] \]
where the catch C[.] is calculated using the Baranov catch equation with the corresponding biomass, natural mortality, and fishing mortality values in each year.
Atlantic wolffish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
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Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2025) | 8 556 | Results from Fages–10-15 (2025); in tonnes. |
SSB (2026) | 37 052 | Short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 4 (2026) | 14 811 | ,Average of the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands. |
Recruitment age 4 (2027) | 14 811 | ,Average of the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands. |
Fages10-15 (2025) | 0.2 | Assuming status quo F (average over the last three years) for 1 January–31 August 2025 and FMGT for 1 September–31 December 2025; tonnes |
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Catch (2025) | 8 556 | Results from Fages–10-15 (2025); in tonnes. |
SSB (2026) | 37 052 | Short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 4 (2026) | 14 811 | ,Average of the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands. |
Recruitment age 4 (2027) | 14 811 | ,Average of the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands. |
Fages10-15 (2025) | 0.2 | Assuming status quo F (average over the last three years) for 1 January–31 August 2025 and FMGT for 1 September–31 December 2025; tonnes |
Atlantic wolffish. Projection of SSB based on catch according to the management plan. All weights are in tonnes.
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Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | Fishing mortality (2025/2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 9 412 | 0.2 | 38 524 | 4 | 0 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (9378 t) | |||||
Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | Fishing mortality (2025/2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 9 412 | 0.2 | 38 524 | 4 | 0 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (9378 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
Current assessment results are consistent with previous years.
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Atlantic wolffish. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2022–2024).
Other information
Maintaining the current closed spawning areas in Látragrunn, which is located west of Iceland, provides protection for the spawning aggregations.
Advice, TAC and Catch
Atlantic wolffish.. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
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Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1998/1999 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 13 139 |
1999/2000 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 14 913 |
2000/2001 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 18 083 |
2001/2002 | 13 000 | 16 100 | 13 681 |
2002/2003 | 15 000 | 15 000 | 16 943 |
2003/2004 | 15 000 | 15 000 | 13 255 |
2004/2005 | 13 000 | 16 000 | 14 201 |
2005/2006 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 16 461 |
2006/2007 | 12 000 | 13 000 | 15 817 |
2007/2008 | 11 000 | 12 500 | 15 098 |
2008/2009 | 12 000 | 13 000 | 15 429 |
2009/2010 | 10 000 | 12 000 | 13 091 |
2010/2011 | 8 500 | 12 000 | 12 078 |
2011/2012 | 7 500 | 10 500 | 10 582 |
2012/2013 | 7 500 | 8 500 | 8 940 |
2013/2014 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 7 530 |
2014/2015 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 7 862 |
2015/2016 | 8 200 | 8 200 | 8 982 |
2016/2017 | 8 811 | 8 811 | 7 542 |
2017/2018 | 8 540 | 8 540 | 9 553 |
2018/2019 | 9 020 | 9 020 | 9 355 |
2019/2020 | 8 344 | 8 344 | 7 166 |
2020/2021 | 8 761 | 8 761 | 8 974 |
2021/2022 | 8 933 | 8 933 | 8 562 |
2022/2023 | 8 107 | 8 107 | 8 782 |
2023/2024 | 8 344 | 8 344 | 9 286 |
2024/2025 | 9 378 | 9 378 | |
2025/2026 | 9 412 |
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|
1998/1999 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 13 139 |
1999/2000 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 14 913 |
2000/2001 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 18 083 |
2001/2002 | 13 000 | 16 100 | 13 681 |
2002/2003 | 15 000 | 15 000 | 16 943 |
2003/2004 | 15 000 | 15 000 | 13 255 |
2004/2005 | 13 000 | 16 000 | 14 201 |
2005/2006 | 13 000 | 13 000 | 16 461 |
2006/2007 | 12 000 | 13 000 | 15 817 |
2007/2008 | 11 000 | 12 500 | 15 098 |
2008/2009 | 12 000 | 13 000 | 15 429 |
2009/2010 | 10 000 | 12 000 | 13 091 |
2010/2011 | 8 500 | 12 000 | 12 078 |
2011/2012 | 7 500 | 10 500 | 10 582 |
2012/2013 | 7 500 | 8 500 | 8 940 |
2013/2014 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 7 530 |
2014/2015 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 7 862 |
2015/2016 | 8 200 | 8 200 | 8 982 |
2016/2017 | 8 811 | 8 811 | 7 542 |
2017/2018 | 8 540 | 8 540 | 9 553 |
2018/2019 | 9 020 | 9 020 | 9 355 |
2019/2020 | 8 344 | 8 344 | 7 166 |
2020/2021 | 8 761 | 8 761 | 8 974 |
2021/2022 | 8 933 | 8 933 | 8 562 |
2022/2023 | 8 1071) | 8 107 | 8 782 |
2023/2024 | 8 3441) | 8 344 | 9 286 |
2024/2025 | 9 3781) | 9 378 | |
2025/2026 | 9 4121) | ||
1) FMGT = 0.2 | |||
References and further reading
ICES. 2022a. Iceland request for evaluation of a harvest control rule for Atlantic wolffish in Icelandic waters. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2022. ICES Advice 2022, sr.2022.6a. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.19625679
ICES. 2022b. Workshop on the evaluation of assessments and management plans for ling, tusk, plaice and Atlantic wolffish in Icelandic waters (WKICEMP). ICES Scientific Reports. 4:37. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19663971
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Atlantic wolffish. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.