LING Molva molva
Publication of Advice: 6 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 6 330 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is above FMGT but below Flim, and Fpa. Spawning-stock size is above MGT Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Ling. Catch by gear types, recruitment (age 2), fishing mortality (ages 8–11), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMGT = 0.3 applied to ages 8 to 11, modified by the ratio SSBy/MGT Btrigger when SSBy < MGT Btrigger. The expected range of realized fishing mortalities (F) following the management plan (FMGT) is between 0.21 and 0.44. |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Age and length data from commercial catches and surveys (IS-SMB, IS-SMH and IS-SMN) and total catches. |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 11 100 | Based on Bpa |
FMSY | 0.3 | Leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations (EqSim). | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 11 100 | From the management plan |
FMGT | 0.3 | From the management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 9 000 | Lowest SSB (2016) where large recruitment was observed |
Bpa | 11 100 | Blim x e^1.645 * 0.2^ | |
Fpa | 0.62 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5% |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has a fisheries management plan for Icelandic ling which was evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2022). It is considered to be precautionary and conforms to ICES MSY approach. According to the management plan, FY/Y+1, i.e. the advice fishing mortality that is applied from 1 September in year Y to 31 August in year Y+1, is calculated from the harvest control rule (HCR) as:
\[ \text{F}_{Y⁄Y+1}=\text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{trigger}} ,1\right) \text{F}_{mgt} \]
To calculate the catch in the last four months of the year Y (September through December), the following F is used in the year Y:
\[ \text{F}_Y=\frac{2}{3}\text{F}_{SQ} + \frac{1}{3}\text{F}_{MBT} \]
In year Y+1, F(Y⁄Y+1) is used. Finally, the catch advice for the year Y/Y+1 is calculated using the following formula:
\[ C_{Y⁄Y+1}=\frac{1}{3}C[\text{F}_Y]+ \frac{2}{3} C[\text{F}_{Y/Y+1}] \]
where the catch C[.] is calculated using the Baranov catch equation with the corresponding biomass, natural mortality, and fishing mortality values in each year.
Ling. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages8-11 (2025) | 0.35 | Assuming status quo F (last years F) for 1 January–31 August 2025 and FMGT for 1 September–31 December 2025; tonnes |
SSB (2026) | 25 949 | Short-term forecast; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 2 (2026) | 3 527 | Averaged from the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
Recruitment age 2 (2027) | 3 527 | Averaged from the past 10 years of the assessment; in thousands |
Catch (2025) | 7 684 | Results from Fages–5-10 (2025); in tonnes. |
Ling Projection of SSB (tonnes) on catch according to management plans.
Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | Fishing mortality (2025/2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 6 330 | 0.3 | 24 544 | -5 | -2 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (6479 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
The results of the assessment in 2025 are in line with those in 2024.
Ling. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates 2021–2024. Note that the stock was benchmarked in 2022 and only the lines from 2022 onwards can be compared to the reference points. Prior to the benchmark, recruitment was estimated at age 3 and is not shown.
Advice, TAC and catch
Ling. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 7 500 | 7 500 | 9 327 | 837 | 9 327 |
2011/2012 | 8 800 | 9 000 | 10 072 | 1 123 | 10 072 |
2012/2013 | 12 000 | 12 000 | 11 125 | 1 368 | 11 140 |
2013/2014 | 14 000 | 14 000 | 11 794 | 1 763 | 12 982 |
2014/2015 | 14 300 | 14 300 | 11 684 | 1 974 | 13 658 |
2015/2016 | 16 200 | 16 200 | 9 773 | 1 456 | 11 229 |
2016/2017 | 9 343 | 9 343 | 7 291 | 1 135 | 8 426 |
2017/2018 | 8 5981) | 8 598 | 7 017 | 1 309 | 8 326 |
2018/2019 | 6 2551) | 6 255 | 6 927 | 1 101 | 8 028 |
2019/2020 | 6 5991) | 6 599 | 5 972 | 1 183 | 7 155 |
2020/2021 | 5 7001) | 5 700 | 6 201 | 1 012 | 7 213 |
2021/2022 | 4 7351) | 4 735 | 5 814 | 885 | 6 699 |
2022/2023 | 6 0982) | 6 098 | 7 511 | 926 | 8 437 |
2023/2024 | 6 5662) | 6 566 | 8 114 | 1 282 | 9 396 |
2024/2025 | 6 4792) | 6 479 | |||
2025/2026 | 6 3302) | ||||
1) 18 % harvest control rule | |||||
2) FMGT = 0.3 | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2022. Workshop on the evaluation of assessments and management plans for ling, tusk, plaice and Atlantic wolffish in Icelandic waters (WKICEMP). ICES Scientific Reports. 4:37. 271 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.19663971
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Ling. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.