GOLDEN REDFISH Sebastes norvegicus
Publication of Advice: 6 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 in the East Greenland / Iceland / Faroe Islands area should be no more than 41 345.
Stock Development
Fishing pressure is below FMSY, Fpa and Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Golden redfish. Catches by area, recruitment, fishing mortality (ages 9–19), and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | ICES MSY approach |
Management plan | TAC set using the ICES advice rule with a fishing mortality FMSY =0.112 applied to ages 9–19, modified by the ratio SSBy/MSY Btrigger when SSBy < MSY Btrigger |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model (SAM) |
Input data | Landing data and length distributions of catches from Iceland, Greenland, and the Faroes, survey data by length from Iceland (IS-SMB, IS-SMH), East Greenland (GER(GRL)-GFS-Q4) and the Faroe Islands (FO-GFS-Q1, FO-GFS-Q3), age data from Icelandic catches and IS-SMH |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 154 094 | Bpa |
FMSY | 0.112 | Leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations (EqSim) | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 110 893 | Bloss. Lowest SSB (1994) |
Bpa | 154 094 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.2 | |
Fpa | 0.114 | Fp05, maximum F at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5% |
Prospects
Golden redfish. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Fages9-19 (2025) | 0.132 | From the forecast for 2025, based on the assumed catch in 2025; in tonnes |
SSB (2026) | 277 646 | Projected from the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 6 (2025) | 42 905 | From the assessment; in thousands |
Recruitment age 6 (2026) | 67 314 | Average of the last five cohorts in 2021–2025; in thousands |
Catch (2025) | 46 911 | Sum of expected landings from (2025); in tonnes. |
Golden redfish. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on the MSY approach.
Basis | Catch (2026) | Fishing mortality ages 9-19 (2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | 41 345 | 0.112 | 265 015 | -5 | -12 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 relative to advice value for (46911 t) | |||||
The advised catch has decreased because the stock size decreased.
Quality of the assessment
The assessment in 2025 is consistent with the previous assessments.
Because of the aggregating behaviour of the species, survey indices are often largely dominated by a few large hauls. This causes high uncertainties in the survey indices and large interannual fluctuation in estimates of the biomass index.
Golden redfish. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024). Final-year recruitment and biomass estimates are included. The reference points were revised in 2023 following a benchmark and only the last assessment results should be compared to the reference points indicated. Prior to the benchmark, recruitment was estimated at age 5.
Other information
Since 2009, surveys of golden redfish have consistently shown very low abundance of small fish (≤30 cm). While current estimates of SSB were revised upwards, they show a decreasing trend since 2017. The assessment also shows historically low levels of incoming cohorts. This raises concerns about the productivity of the stock. Without substantial recruitment, biomass levels will likely continue to decline rapidly leading to decreasing catch advice.
No formal agreement on the management of S. norvegicus exists among the three coastal states, Greenland, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands. An agreement exists between Iceland and Greenland since July 2023 on the management of the golden redfish fishery based on the ICES management plan applied in 2023. The agreement is from 2024.
Advice, TAC and catch
Golden redfish. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes). Note that catch in Icelandic waters is by fishing year whereas catch in other areas and total catch is by calendar year.
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches in Icelandic waters | Catches in East Greenland waters1) | Catches in Faroes waters1) | Total catch1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010/2011 | 30 000 | 37 500 | 39 432 | 1 006 | 493 | 45 272 |
2011/2012 | 40 000 | 40 000 | 44 514 | 1 973 | 491 | 45 553 |
2012/2013 | 45 000 | 45 000 | 46 549 | 1 484 | 372 | 53 186 |
2013/2014 | 52 000 | 52 000 | 52 451 | 2 706 | 202 | 50 683 |
2014/2015 | 48 0002) | 45 600 | 48 349 | 2 562 | 270 | 51 602 |
2015/2016 | 51 0002) | 48 500 | 54 818 | 5 442 | 179 | 59 657 |
2016/2017 | 52 8002) | 47 205 | 48 352 | 4 512 | 1 413 | 56 044 |
2017/2018 | 50 8002) | 45 450 | 51 857 | 4 005 | 1 128 | 53 147 |
2018/2019 | 43 6002) | 39 240 | 44 616 | 2 665 | 1 118 | 48 529 |
2019/2020 | 43 5682) | 38 896 | 41 251 | 4 105 | 1 304 | 46 097 |
2020/2021 | 38 3432) | 34 379 | 41 014 | 3 524 | 178 | 43 318 |
2021/2022 | 31 8552) | 28 554 | 33 403 | 2 210 | 128 | 32 375 |
2022/2023 | 25 5452) | 22 615 | 28 820 | 2 741 | 181 | 35 114 |
2023/2024 | 41 2862) | 36 462 | 37 303 | 4 587 | 271 | 43 193 |
2024/2025 | 46 9112) | 41 848 | ||||
2025/2026 | 41 3452) | |||||
1) Calendar year | ||||||
2) Harvest control rule for East Greenland/Iceland/Faroes. The Faroe Islands are not a part of the agreement | ||||||
References and further reading
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Golden redfish. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.