SAITHE Pollachius virens
Publication of Advice: 7 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 59 510 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is on this stock is below HRMSY, HRpa, spawning-stock size is above MGT Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.
Saithe. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate based on reference stock biomass, reference stock biomass (4 years and older) and spawning stock biomass (SSB) (MGT Btrigger = MSY Btrigger = Bpa). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.
Basis of the assessment and Reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC is based on Cy/y+1 = 0.2 × B4+y, where B4+y is based on stock weights. |
Assessment type | Age-based analytical assessment (SAM, Nielsen and Berg, 2014; ICES 2025), that uses catches and surveys in the model. |
Input data | Catch at age, stock weight-at-age, maturity-at-age and an age-disaggregated abundance index from the Icelandic bottom-trawl Spring survey (SMB). No information is available on natural mortality. For assessment and advisory purpose the natural mortality is set to 0.2 for all age groups (ICES, 2025) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 67 000 | Bpa |
HRMSY | 0.21 | Harvest rate that leads to long-term MSY, based on stochastic simulations with neither assessment error nor MSY Btrigger implemented | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 67 000 | From the management plan |
HRMGT | 0.2 | From the management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 48 000 | Mean SSB over five lowest values (1996–2000) |
Bpa | 67 000 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.2, based on assessment coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.2 | |
HRpa | 0.27 | Maximum HR at which the probability of SSB falling below Blim is <5%, based on stochastic simulations |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a management plan for Icelandic saithe in 2025 (MII, 2025). According to the management plan, the TAC for the fishing year Y/Y+1 (01 September of year Y (interim year) to 31 August of year Y+1 (advisory year)) is calculated as follows:
\[ \text{TAC}_{Y/Y+1} = \text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{trigger}}, 1\right) \big\{0.2 \text{B}_{4+,Y} \big\} \]
where B4+,Y is the biomass of saithe aged 4 and older in year Y, 0.2 equates to the HRMGT, and MGT Btrigger = 67 000 tonnes of SSB.
Saithe. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Recruitment age 1 (2026) | 35 671 | Estimated by the model; in thousands |
Recruitment age 1 (2027) | 35 671 | Geometric mean recruitment based on the whole time series; in thousands |
SSB (2026) | 197 090 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
SSB (2027) | 192 149 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Harvest rate (2025) | 0.11 | Annual HR, based on assumed catch in 2025. |
Catch (2025) | 36 601 | Based on expected catch — calculated by applying the linear trend of cumulative monthly proportions over the last five fishing years to the current TAC and management plan; tonnes |
Saithe. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2025/2026) | Harvest rate (2025/2026) | SSB (2027) | % SSB change1) | Advice change2) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 59 510 | 0.2 | 192 149 | -3 | -11 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | |||||
2) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (66705 t) | |||||
Quality of the assessment
This stock was benchmarked in 2025 (ICES, 2025), a new assessment method was applied, and reference points were revised.
Saithe Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024).
Other information
The catch has been less than the TAC since 2013. Part of the unused TAC has been used to fish for other species, under the Icelandic quota management system, which allows limited transfer between species. This may contribute to the advice and TACs being exceeded for some species.
Advice, TAC and catch
Saithe. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 60 412 | 2 313 | 60 412 |
1985 | 60 000 | 70 000 | 55 140 | 1 966 | 55 140 |
1986 | 60 000 | 70 000 | 63 880 | 1 001 | 63 880 |
1987 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 78 152 | 2 356 | 78 152 |
1988 | 75 000 | 80 000 | 74 386 | 2 864 | 74 386 |
1989 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 79 757 | 2 615 | 79 757 |
1990 | 90 000 | 90 000 | 94 986 | 3 095 | 94 986 |
1991 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 69 063 | 2 926 | 69 063 |
1991/1992 | 70 000 | 75 000 | 85 155 | 1 765 | 85 155 |
1992/1993 | 80 000 | 92 000 | 98 425 | 1 758 | 98 507 |
1993/1994 | 75 000 | 85 000 | 66 620 | 1 209 | 66 831 |
1994/1995 | 70 000 | 75 000 | 49 919 | 1 679 | 50 474 |
1995/1996 | 65 000 | 70 000 | 40 525 | 1 177 | 40 915 |
1996/1997 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 37 370 | 843 | 37 498 |
1997/1998 | 30 000 | 30 000 | 32 692 | 1 111 | 32 777 |
1998/1999 | 30 000 | 30 000 | 30 835 | 1 086 | 31 210 |
1999/2000 | 25 000 | 30 000 | 29 648 | 166 | 29 838 |
2000/2001 | 25 000 | 30 000 | 31 385 | 249 | 31 513 |
2001/2002 | 25 000 | 37 000 | 36 264 | 408 | 36 439 |
2002/2003 | 35 000 | 45 000 | 47 474 | 547 | 47 569 |
2003/2004 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 55 970 | 1 093 | 56 003 |
2004/2005 | 70 000 | 70 000 | 70 636 | 1 290 | 70 673 |
2005/2006 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 77 869 | 470 | 77 896 |
2006/2007 | 80 000 | 80 000 | 66 474 | 423 | 66 474 |
2007/2008 | 60 000 | 75 000 | 66 735 | 295 | 66 737 |
2008/2009 | 50 000 | 65 000 | 61 997 | 422 | 61 997 |
2009/2010 | 35 000 | 50 000 | 57 404 | 500 | 57 404 |
2010/2011 | 40 000 | 50 000 | 51 593 | 833 | 51 593 |
2011/2012 | 45 000 | 52 000 | 49 666 | 1 020 | 49 703 |
2012/2013 | 49 000 | 50 000 | 51 273 | 1 353 | 51 576 |
2013/2014 | 57 0002) | 57 000 | 54 335 | 718 | 55 022 |
2014/2015 | 58 0002) | 58 000 | 52 035 | 524 | 52 559 |
2015/2016 | 55 0002) | 55 000 | 48 889 | 365 | 49 254 |
2016/2017 | 55 0002) | 55 000 | 44 688 | 292 | 44 980 |
2017/2018 | 60 2372) | 60 237 | 58 786 | 232 | 59 018 |
2018/2019 | 79 0922) | 79 092 | 70 150 | 175 | 70 325 |
2019/2020 | 80 5882) | 80 588 | 52 995 | 227 | 53 222 |
2020/2021 | 78 5742) | 78 574 | 56 163 | 161 | 56 324 |
2021/2022 | 77 5612) | 77 561 | 63 065 | 141 | 63 206 |
2022/2023 | 71 3002) | 71 300 | 46 055 | 179 | 46 234 |
2023/2024 | 66 5332) | 66 533 | 40 535 | 93 | 40 628 |
2024/2025 | 66 7052) | 66 705 | |||
2025/2026 | 59 510 | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year | |||||
2) 20 % harvest control rule | |||||
References and further reading
Nielsen, Anders, and Casper W. Berg. 2014. “Estimation of Time-Varying Selectivity in Stock Assessments Using State-Space Models.” Fisheries Research 158: 96–101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2014.01.014.
ICES. 2025. Workshop on the assessment and management plan evaluation for Icelandic haddock and saithe (WKICEGAD). ICES Scientific Reports. 7:26. 161 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.28444499
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Saithe. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025