HADDOCK Melanogrammus aeglefinus
Publication of Advice: 6 June 2025. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.
Advice
MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 78 918 tonnes.
Stock development
Fishing pressure is above HRMGT, HRMSY and HRpa; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.
Haddock. Catch by gear type, recruitment, fishing mortality and harvest rate, reference stock biomass (B45+ cm) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals. All biomass reference points refer to SSB levels.
Basis of the assessment and reference points
Basis of the advice | Management plan |
Management plan | TAC set as 35% of reference biomass (biomass of 45 cm and larger) in the assessment year |
Assessment type | Statistical catch at age model |
Input data | Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH) |
Approach | Reference point | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
MSY approach | MSY Btrigger | 64 400 | Bpa |
HRMSY | 0.35 | HRpa | |
Management plan | MGT Btrigger | 64 400 | From the management plan |
HRMGT | 0.35 | From the management plan | |
Precautionary approach | Blim | 46 000 | Bloss |
Bpa | 64 400 | Blim x e1.645 * 0.2 | |
HRpa | 0.35 | HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger |
Prospects
The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has adopted a management plan for Icelandic haddock fisheries (MI, 2025). The TAC is set in the following way according to the plan:
\[ \mathrm{TAC}_{y/y+1} = 0.35B_{45cm+, y} \; \mathrm{if}\; \mathrm{SSB}_{y} \geq \mathrm{MGT \; B_{trigger}} \]
\[ \mathrm{TAC}_{y/y+1} = \frac{\mathrm{SSB}_{y}}{\mathrm{MGT \; B_{trigger}}} 0.35B_{45cm+, y} \; \mathrm{if}\; \mathrm{SSB}_{y} < \mathrm{MGT \; B_{trigger}} \]
where MGT Btrigger = 64 400 tonnes of SSB, y is the assessment year, TACy/y+1 is the TAC for the fishing year starting 01 September in the assessment year, and B45cm+,y is the estimated biomass of haddock ≥ 45 cm at the beginning of the assessment year
Haddock. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.
Variable | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Harvest rate (2025) | 0.33 | Annual HR, based on assumed catch in 2025. |
SSB (2026) | 215 616 | From the assessment; in tonnes |
Recruitment age 1 (2026) | 99 901 | Geometric mean recruitment based on the whole time series; in thousands |
Recruitment age 1 (2027) | 99 901 | Geometric mean recruitment based on the whole time series; in thousands |
Viðmiðunarstofn (2025) | 225 480 | Biomass of fish 45 cm and larger (B45+). From the assessment; in tonnes |
Catch (2025) | 74 298 | Based on full uptake of the remaining TAC until 31 August 2025 and management plans from 1 September to 31 December 2025; tonnes |
Haddock. Projection of SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.
Basis | Catch (2026) | Harvest rate (2026) | SSB (2027) | SSB change (%)1) | TAC change (%)2) | Advice change (%)3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Management plan | 78 918 | 0.35 | 193 645 | -10.2 | 3 | 3 |
1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026 | ||||||
2) TAC value for 2025/2026 relative to TAC value for 2024/2025 (76774 t) | ||||||
3) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (76774 t) | ||||||
Quality of the assessment
The assessment method was revised in 2025. At the benchmark the model recruitment age was set to be age 1, while previously it was set as age 2.
Haddock Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024). The recruitment age was changed in 2025.
Other information
Landings of haddock in Icelandic waters have consistently exceeded the advised catch in recent years, mainly related to quota transfers between species. This results in a harvest rate higher than HRpa but within the realised harvest rates in the evaluation of the management plan.
Advice, tac and catch
Haddock. Recommended TAC, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).
Fishing year | Recommended TAC | National TAC | Catches Iceland | Catches other nations1) | Total catch1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1984 | 55 000 | 60 000 | 47 167 | 1 069 | 48 236 |
1985 | 45 000 | 60 000 | 49 573 | 1 380 | 50 953 |
1986 | 50 000 | 60 000 | 47 335 | 1 546 | 48 881 |
1987 | 50 000 | 60 000 | 39 751 | 1 282 | 41 033 |
1988 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 52 999 | 1 149 | 54 148 |
1989 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 61 715 | 1 089 | 62 804 |
1990 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 65 897 | 1 198 | 67 095 |
1991 | 38 000 | 48 000 | 39 142 | 1 218 | 40 360 |
1991/1992 | 50 000 | 50 000 | 47 285 | 1 118 | 47 285 |
1992/1993 | 60 000 | 65 000 | 60 302 | 1 833 | 60 385 |
1993/1994 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 56 171 | 2 912 | 58 443 |
1994/1995 | 65 000 | 65 000 | 60 522 | 1 028 | 60 828 |
1995/1996 | 55 000 | 60 000 | 53 868 | 747 | 53 972 |
1996/1997 | 40 000 | 45 000 | 49 729 | 340 | 49 764 |
1997/1998 | 40 000 | 45 000 | 37 808 | 513 | 37 810 |
1998/1999 | 35 000 | 35 000 | 45 115 | 903 | 45 146 |
1999/2000 | 35 000 | 35 000 | 41 150 | 10 | 41 150 |
2000/2001 | 31 000 | 30 000 | 39 116 | 746 | 39 143 |
2001/2002 | 30 000 | 41 000 | 41 059 | 855 | 41 070 |
2002/2003 | 55 000 | 55 000 | 55 251 | 1 020 | 55 269 |
2003/2004 | 75 000 | 75 000 | 77 916 | 1 126 | 77 917 |
2004/2005 | 97 000 | 90 000 | 96 617 | 1 562 | 96 617 |
2005/2006 | 110 000 | 105 000 | 99 918 | 1 592 | 99 926 |
2006/2007 | 112 000 | 105 000 | 99 763 | 1 699 | 99 763 |
2007/2008 | 120 000 | 100 000 | 109 810 | 1 208 | 109 810 |
2008/2009 | 83 000 | 93 000 | 88 618 | 829 | 88 618 |
2009/2010 | 57 000 | 63 000 | 67 579 | 368 | 67 579 |
2010/2011 | 51 000 | 50 000 | 50 042 | 217 | 50 042 |
2011/2012 | 42 000 | 45 000 | 49 179 | 338 | 49 179 |
2012/2013 | 32 000 | 36 000 | 40 481 | 667 | 40 512 |
2013/2014 | 38 000 | 38 000 | 38 948 | 794 | 39 629 |
2014/2015 | 30 4002) | 30 400 | 35 403 | 1 167 | 36 570 |
2015/2016 | 36 4002) | 36 400 | 38 646 | 1 471 | 40 117 |
2016/2017 | 34 6002) | 34 600 | 34 754 | 1 586 | 36 340 |
2017/2018 | 41 3902) | 41 390 | 42 500 | 1 200 | 43 700 |
2018/2019 | 57 9822) | 57 982 | 58 632 | 750 | 59 382 |
2019/2020 | 41 8233) | 41 823 | 47 894 | 1 097 | 48 991 |
2020/2021 | 45 3893) | 45 3894) | 59 143 | 1 529 | 60 672 |
2021/2022 | 50 4293) | 41 9295) | 49 759 | 2 227 | 51 986 |
2022/2023 | 62 2193) | 62 219 | 67 737 | 1 573 | 69 310 |
2023/2024 | 76 4153) | 76 415 | 82 742 | 1 877 | 84 619 |
2024/2025 | 76 7743) | 76 774 | |||
2025/2026 | 78 9183) | ||||
1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is only available by calendar year. Before that time total catches within the fishing year mostly excludes foreign landings. | |||||
2) 40 % harvest control rule | |||||
3) 35 % harvest control rule | |||||
4) TAC was increased by 8 000 t mid-fishing year | |||||
5) TAC was decreased by 8 000 t because of the increase in the previous fishing year | |||||
References and further reading
ICES. 2025. Workshop on the benchmark assessment and management plan evaluation for Icelandic haddock and saithe (WKICEGAD). ICES Scientific Reports. THIS NEEDS UPDATING WHEN REPORT IS READY1:10. 107 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5091
MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Haddock. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6. June 2025.
Stofnmatsskýrslur Hafrannsóknastofnunar 2025. Ýsa. Hafrannsóknastofnun, 6. júní 2025.