COD Gadus morhua

Advice 2025/2026

203 822

tonnes

Advice 2024/2025

213 214

tonnes

Advice change

-4 %

Publication of Advice: 7. June 2024. Published by Marine and Freshwater Research Institute.


Advice

MFRI and ICES advise that when the Icelandic management plan is applied, catches in the fishing year 2025/2026 should be no more than 203 822 tonnes.

Stock development

Fishing pressure is at HRMGT and below HRMSY, and HRpa; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa, and Blim.

Cod. Catch by gear type, recruitment, harvest rate, reference stock biomass (B4+) and spawning stock biomass (SSB). Shaded areas and error bars show 95% confidence intervals.

Basis of the assessment and reference points

Basis of the advice

Management plan

Management plan

TAC set as the average of last year’s TAC and 20% of reference biomass

Assessment type

Statistical catch at age model

Input data

Catch in numbers and age disaggregated indices (IS-SMB, IS-SMH)

Approach

Reference point

Value

Basis

MSY approach

MSY Btrigger

265 000

The fifth percentile on the distribution of SSB when the TAC is based on HRMGT

HRMSY

0.22

Stochastic HCR evaluation. Percentage of Bage 4+

Management plan

MGT Btrigger

220 000

Management plan

HRMGT

0.2

Management plan

Precautionary approach

Blim

125 000

Bloss

Bpa

160 000

Blim x e1.645 * 0.15

HRpa

0.39

HR leading to P(SSB > Blim) = 95 % with Btrigger

Prospects

The Icelandic Ministry of Industries has a fisheries management plan for Icelandic cod. The plan, which aims at providing maximum sustainable yield, was re-evaluated by ICES and found to be consistent with both the precautionary principle and ICES MSY approach (ICES, 2021a). According to the management plan, the TAC for the fishing year Y/Y+1 (01 September of year Y to 31 August of year Y+1) is calculated as follows:

\[ \text{TAC}_{Y/Y+1} = \frac{\text{min}\left(\frac{\text{SSB}_Y}{\text{MGT B}_{\text{trigger}}},1\right) \text{HR}_{\text{MGT}}B_{4+,y} + \text{TAC}_{Y-1/Y}}{2} \]

where B4+,y is the biomass of cod aged 4 and older in year y and MGT Btrigger = 220 000 tonnes.

The expected range of the realized harvest rate (HR) when following the management plan (HRMGT) is between 0.15 and 0.27 (ICES, 2021a).

Cod. Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast.

Variable

Value

Notes

Harvest rate (2025)

0.21

Annual HR, based on estimated catch in 2025.

SSB (2026)

382 420

From the assessment; in tonnes

Recruitment age 3 (2026)

136 587

Estimated by the model; in thousands

Recruitment age 3 (2027)

140 458

Estimated by the model; in thousands

Catch (2025)

205 818

Estimated catch until the end of the fishing year (31 August 2025) and estimated catch in the first four months of the next fishing year (1 September–31 December 2025); tonnes

Cod. Projection of reference biomass and SSB (tonnes) based on adopted harvest control rule.

Basis

Catch (2025/2026)

Harvest rate (2025/2026)

SSB (2027)

% SSB change1)

Advice change2)

Management plan

203 822

0.2

376 815

-1

-4

1) SSB in 2027 relative to SSB in 2026

2) Advice value for 2025/2026 relative to advice value for 2024/2025 (213214 t)

The advised catch has decreased mainly due to a reduction in stock abundance, as well as a decline in stock and catch weights at age.

Quality of the assessment

Biomass has been revised upwards over the past three assessments.

In 2025, the assessment model was updated to account for a likely migration event that affected the stock in 2021. This event was initially detected when unusually high numbers of the 2015 year class appeared at age 6 in 2021, much higher than expected based on earlier observations. These elevated numbers continued to be seen in all three data sources used in the model over the following years. A similarly large 2015 cohort was also observed in East Greenland catch-at-age and survey data for the East Greenland–Iceland offshore spawning cod stock, suggesting a shared origin. This is the 13th such migration event incorporated into the model since 1958. All events have involved recruitment at ages 6–9 and are most likely linked to cod originating from Greenland waters.

Þorskur. Current assessment (red line) compared with previous estimates (2021–2024).

Other Information

Reference biomass B4+ has decreased by 8% in numbers, and 9% in weight compared to last year. The reduction in numbers follows the most recent decline in spring survey indices, while the reduction in biomass also results from relatively low weights of age classes dominating reference biomass age composition. Stock and catch weights at ages have been lower than the long-term average for most ages over the past two years. As capelin is known to be a major prey source for cod in Icelandic waters (Pálsson and Björnsson, 2011) and capelin stock levels have been linked to cod growth (Frater et al., 2019), the reduction in cod weights is likely linked to low capelin stock levels observed over the past two years in Iceland and Faroes grounds, East Greenland, Jan Mayen area. Lower catch weight-at-age than forecasted will lead to higher fishing mortality in the current fishing year. These circumstances may lead to greater risk of the stock size decreasing in the near future.

Advice, TAC and Catch

Cod. Recommended TAC according to management plan, national TAC, and catches (tonnes).

Fishing year

Recommended TAC

National TAC

Catches Iceland

Catches other nations1)

Total catch

1984

200  000

242  000

281  696

2  387

281  696

1985

200  000

263  000

322  750

2  457

322  750

1986

300  000

300  000

365  909

2  781

365  909

1987

300  000

330  000

389  936

2  449

389  936

1988

300  000

350  000

375  908

2  335

375  908

1989

300  000

325  000

354  195

2  324

354  195

1990

250  000

300  000

333  870

2  042

333  870

1991

240  000

245  000

243  369

1  871

243  369

1991/1992

250  000

265  000

272  172

1  105

272  172

1992/1993

154  000

205  000

297  487

7  357

301  812

1993/1994

150  000

165  000

196  929

12  431

209  712

1994/1995

130  000

155  000

164  113

7  076

168  441

1995/1996

155  0002)

155  000

169  673

6  495

179  080

1996/1997

186  0002)

186  000

203  915

2  716

205  661

1997/1998

218  0002)

218  000

227  800

1  238

228  401

1998/1999

250  0002)

250  000

254  729

1  477

254  942

1999/2000

247  0002)

250  000

255  692

132

255  724

2000/2001

203  0002)

220  000

221  740

1  267

221  792

2001/2002

190  0002)

190  000

216  864

1  330

216  907

2002/2003

179  0002)

179  000

196  652

2  434

196  678

2003/2004

209  0002)

209  000

219  389

3  480

219  395

2004/2005

205  0002)

205  000

209  333

3  019

209  457

2005/2006

198  000

198  000

201  839

1  807

201  857

2006/2007

178  000

193  000

186  762

1  847

186  762

2007/2008

130  0003)

130  000

138  702

2  080

139  125

2008/2009

124  0003)

160  000

168  515

1  383

168  515

2009/2010

150  0003)

155  000

167  467

1  456

167  467

2010/2011

160  0003)

160  000

164  719

1  426

164  734

2011/2012

177  0003)

177  000

182  486

1  428

182  494

2012/2013

196  0003)

195  000

210  361

1  543

210  510

2013/2014

215  0003)

214  000

223  964

1  475

225  088

2014/2015

218  0003)

218  000

221  061

1  544

222  605

2015/2016

239  0003)

239  000

249  934

1  951

251  885

2016/2017

244  0003)

244  000

234  649

2  605

237  254

2017/2018

257  5723)

257  572

267  135

2  612

269  747

2018/2019

264  4373)

264  437

262  888

2  013

264  901

2019/2020

272  4113)

272  411

269  328

2  044

271  372

2020/2021

256  5933)

256  593

269  423

2  365

271  788

2021/2022

222  3733)

222  373

235  685

2  620

238  305

2022/2023

208  8463)

208  846

218  176

2  359

220  535

2023/2024

211  3093)

211  309

218  778

2  486

221  264

2024/2025

213  2143)

213  214

2025/2026

203  822

1) Landings of other nations before 2014 is by calendar year

2) 25 % harvest control rule

3) 20 % harvest control rule

References and further reading

ICES 2010. Report of the Ad hoc Group on Icelandic Cod HCR Evaluation (AGICOD), ICES CM 2009/ACOM:56. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5279

ICES. 2021. Workshop on the re-evaluation of management plan for the Icelandic cod stock (WKICE-COD). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:30. 85 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7987

MII. 2015. Icelandic Ministry of Industries and Innovation’s fisheries management plan for Icelandic cod.

MFRI Assessment Reports 2025. Cod. Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, 6 June 2025.

Pálsson ÓK, Björnsson H. 2011. Long-term changes in trophic patterns of Iceland cod and linkages to main prey stock sizes. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68(7), 1488–1499. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsr057

Frater, P. N., Hrafnkelsson, B., Elvarsson, B. T., & Stefansson, G. 2019. Drivers of growth for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in Icelandic waters–A Bayesian approach to determine spatiotemporal variation and its causes. Journal of Fish Biology, 95(2), 401-410.